The world should not expect to achieve a satisfactory global treaty on cutting greenhouse gas emissions at the UN conference in Copenhagen, climate change expert Ross Garnaut says.
But that is not necessarily a problem, according to the head of the federal government's 2008 climate change review.
"So long as expectations have not been set so high that failure to meet unrealistic expectations creates unwarranted pessimism about what will ultimately be possible," Professor Garnaut said."What we have to work towards is a broad framework at Copenhagen that allows officials working to heads of government to fill in the crucial numbers in the year or so after that."
Presenting the annual Hawke lecture in Adelaide on Wednesday, Prof Garnaut described climate change as a diabolical policy problem."The most difficult of the many challenging dimensions of climate change policy is that there can be no effective mitigation (to greenhouse gas emissions) without all countries of substantial size making major contributions to the solution," he said.
"And yet each country has an interest, from a narrow national perspective, in doing as little as possible, so long as its own free riding does not undermine the efforts of others."Prof Garnaut warned there was no chance of any country committing to mitigation at the cost of damaging its prospects for continued growth in output and living standards.
The world's challenge, he said, was to break the nexus between growth in living standards and the growth in greenhouse gas emissions.Prof Garnaut said the one saving grace, which meant a solution was possible, was the exceptional public interest and concern in many countries over the issue.
And he sees a key role for Australia with its commitment to playing its full part in an ambitious global effort strongly in the country's national interest."The whole challenge is immense and meeting the challenge will make large demands on community cohesion and leadership," he said.
"A strong global mitigation effort is of immense importance to future Australian prosperity and security."
