2024 polls: Trump support surges ahead of Iowa caucuses

Donald Trump is pulling ahead in Iowa ahead of the state’s caucuses on 15 January.

With only five weeks left to go, the former president’s support passed 50 per cent for the first time during the 2024 campaign, according to a poll by the Des Moines Register, NBC News, and Mediacom, in which 51 per cent of the respondents said Mr Trump was their top choice.

Florida Governor Ron DeSantis is at 19 per cent in the survey while former South Carolina Governor and UN Ambassador Nikki Haley is at 16 per cent.

Biotech entrepreneur and anti-woke author Vivek Ramaswamy received about five per cent in the poll, with former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie being the only other candidate polling at more than one per cent.

“Iowa is the least predictable,” Ann Selzer, a prominent Iowa pollster, previously told The Independent. “We look at the largest number of candidates.”

“It should be impossible to poll caucuses accurately because they’re designed for things to change at the very last moment,” she added.

Key Points

  • Trump allies defend his ‘day one’ dictatorship: ‘All he needs’

  • Poll shows Donald Trump dominating GOP field as rivals sputter

  • Was Ron DeSantis lacklustre campaign doomed from the start?

  • DeSantis, Haley tied for second as Trump remains far ahead

  • Biden now holds slight lead over Trump in new national poll

Trump leads Biden in swing states amid terrible ratings for incumbent

18:41 , Gustaf Kilander

Former President Donald Trump leads incumbent President Joe Biden in both Georgia and Michigan, polling by CNN has found.

Mr Trump leads Mr Biden in Georgia by 49 to 44 per cent and in Michigan by 50 to 40 per cent. Survey respondents in both states hold negative views of Mr Biden’s policies, job performance, and sharpness.

In Michigan, 10 per cent said they don’t support either candidate. Mr Trump’s lead is increased by voters who say they didn’t vote in 2020 – this group breaks for the former president by 26 points in Georgia and by 40 in Michigan. Respondents who say they voted in 2020 reported having broken for Mr Biden in the last election but they now lean in Mr Trump’s direction in both swing states. Mr Biden is currently retaining fewer of his 2020 supporters compared to Mr Trump.

While Mr Trump faces the challenge of getting politically disengaged people to turn up to the polls, Mr Biden is confronted with having to convince those who backed him in the past to do so again, despite their negative views of his leadership.

Thirty-five per cent in Michigan and 39 in Georgia approve of Mr Biden’s job performance and 54 per cent in Georgia and 56 per cent in Michigan say his policies have led to a worse economy.


Trump hits new high in Iowa poll weeks before caucuses

18:00 , Eric Garcia

A new poll shows that a majority of likely Iowa caucusgoers support former president Donald Trump, with Florida Governor Ron DeSantis and former South Carolina governor Nikki Haley trailing significantly.

The new NBC News/Des Moines Register/Mediacom poll shows that 51 per cent of Republicans back the four-times-indicted-twice-impeached former president ahead of the 15 January caucus.

Mr Trump’s support has grown since October, when 43 per cent of likely caucusgoers backed him, it reveals.

Mr Trump also has a wide lead among many of the key groups within Iowa’s electorate, with 51 per cent of white evangelicals supporting him as their first choice; 59 per cent of self-identified Republicans; 63 per cent of first-time caucusgoers; and 66 per cent of white men without a college degree.

Mr Trump also has a wide lead against his nearest competitor Mr DeSantis.

The Florida governor has elected to put all of his efforts in the Hawkeye State as his campaign continues to lag. To date, he has visited all 99 counties, finishing what is called the “Full Grassley,” named for the state’s long-serving Senator Chuck Grassley.


The unplanned rise of the Iowa caucuses

17:00 , Gustaf Kilander

Iowa’s rise in political importance was unplanned — the process used to be dominated by political insiders and there was little opportunity for regular members to have any influence, as The New York Times has noted.

That began to change in 1968, with both the country as a whole, and specifically the Democratic Party, experiencing significant unrest amid the Vietnam War and the Civil Rights Movement. The battle between party leaders and rank-and-file members came to a head at the Democratic Convention, where protesters clashed with law enforcement.

The uneasiness stretched onto the convention floor, and the party eventually began to rethink the process for how they choose their presidential candidates to include the voices of regular party members.

This led to new rules for the 1972 contest and the four stages in which Iowans now choose their preferred candidates, beginning on the precinct level. The precinct votes are the caucuses where people gather in community centres, sports halls and, in less populated areas, even people’s homes. But there’s also voting taking place on the county, congressional district and state levels.

These new rules, while making the process more accessible and inclusive, also led to further delays as newly formed committees needed updated election materials. However, the state party only had an old machine to make the required copies, leading the state party to decide they needed at least a month between each voting stage to get everything in order in time.

The national convention was set for early July, meaning that the state convention could take place in June, but at the time, the state party was unable to locate a big enough venue, pushing each stage further back, meaning that the process had to begin earlier in the year.

The party chose 24 January as their start date in 1972, making the caucuses the first presidential contest in the nation. While the New Hampshire primaries had been first since the 1950s, Iowa Democrats weren’t in earnest moving their contest earlier to garner national attention, The Times noted. But the national spotlight came to Iowa anyway, beginning with the campaign of South Dakota Senator George McGovern. The longshot candidate was struggling in the polls against the frontrunner, Maine’s Senator Edmund Muskie.

On caucus night, state party officials convened at the party headquarters, where New York Times reporter Johnny Apple was one of about a dozen members of the press in attendance. He was the only one who asked for the results that night, but the party wasn’t ready to release them, having not expected any interest. A party official, Richard Bender, organised a phone tree to get all the results from around the state.

Apple’s article published the following morning revealed Muskie as the winner but that McGovern had received 22 per cent of the delegates, helping bring the caucuses into the national spotlight. Muskie’s less-than-impressive win went against all expectations. Similarly, McGovern’s strong second-place finish was also a surprise.

As with the surprising wins of Barack Obama in 2008, Rick Santorum in 2012, John Kerry in 2004, George HW Bush in 1980 and Jimmy Carter in 1976, the strong second-place result for McGovern first showed in 1972 that a lesser-known candidate can come from behind and do better than expected thanks to the new rules first used almost 52 years ago, changing the narrative and building momentum for a nascent campaign.

‘The entire Iowa caucus game is really about expectations’

16:00 , Gustaf Kilander

Des Moines Register politics reporter Katie Akin has been to countless events in Iowa this campaign season.

“The entire Iowa caucus game is really about expectations,” she tells The Independent. “And that’s true throughout the entire early campaign all the way up until caucus night.”

“It’s the first chance for these candidates to really impress or disappoint the people who are watching this race. And that is all based on how they are expected to do versus how they end up doing,” she adds.

When are the Iowa caucuses and why are they so important?

15:00 , Gustaf Kilander

The reason why the Iowa caucus matters is the same reason why money has value: Because people believe it does.

Over just a few decades, the Iowa caucuses went from a local affair to a national circus, with some presidential candidates gambling their entire campaigns on their fortunes in the corn-covered Hawkeye State. The next iteration of the is set to take place on 15 January 2024.


When are the Iowa caucuses and why are they so important?

Trump passes 50 per cent support in Iowa poll

14:07 , Gustaf Kilander

Donald Trump is pulling ahead in Iowa ahead of the state’s caucuses on 15 January.

With only five weeks left to go, the former president’s support passed 50 per cent for the first time during the 2024 campaign, according to a poll by the Des Moines Register, NBC News, and Mediacom, in which 51 per cent of the respondents said Mr Trump was their top choice.

Florida Governor Ron DeSantis is at 19 per cent in the survey while former South Carolina Governor and UN Ambassador Nikki Haley is at 16 per cent.

Biotech entrepreneur and anti-woke author Vivek Ramaswamy received about five per cent in the poll, with former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie being the only other candidate polling at more than one per cent.

Where the Republican candidates stand on Donald Trump

Wednesday 6 December 2023 22:00 , Gustaf Kilander

The field of Republican candidates has winnowed significantly since the beginning of the campaign, going from eight hopefuls appearing on the stage during the first primary debate to just four in the fourth showdown.

The frontrunner by a wide margin is former President Donald Trump, who has declined to appear at any of the debates so far, but his reticence to argue his case hasn’t had any impact on his strong primary poll numbers.

The four top remaining challengers have all used different tactics to take on Mr Trump.

Biotech entrepreneur and anti-woke author Vivek Ramaswamy has been mimicking him while at times struggling to explain why he’s running against a man he has called “the best president of the 21st century”.

Former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie has been creative in finding different ways to call Mr Trump a wildly incompetent and dangerous criminal.

Florida Governor Ron DeSantis has argued that he would be a more competent, and most importantly, younger, version of the ex-president who would be able to run again in 2028.

Former South Carolina Governor and UN Ambassador Nikki Haley initially instituted the “pro-having it and pro-eating it” cake policy of disgraced former UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson when it came to Mr Trump, attempting to remain on the fence and not annoy either Republicans supportive or critical of the former president. More recently, she has become slightly more outspoken in her criticism.

Here’s a rundown of what each of them have said about Mr Trump.

Trump allies threaten criminal charges against media if elected

Wednesday 6 December 2023 20:00 , Alex Woodward

Donald Trump’s campaign of retribution and political prosecution is not merely “rhetoric” but a “dead serious” threat to his opponents and the media, according to his own allies.

On his War Room podcast on Tuesday, former White House adviser and far-right activist Steve Bannon asked Trump loyalist Kash Patel whether he can “deliver the goods” and “get rolling on prosecutions” should Mr Trump win election in 2024.

“And I want the Morning Joe producers that watch us and all the producers to watch us – this is not just rhetoric. We’re absolutely dead serious,” Bannon said. “The deep state, the administrative state, the fourth branch of government never mentioned in the Constitution, is going to be taken apart, brick by brick, and the people that did these evil deeds will be held accountable and prosecuted, criminal prosecutions.”

Patel said a team of “all-American patriots” in all levels of government in a potential Trump administration beginning in 2025 will “come after” members of the press that he claims have “lied about American citizens” and “helped Joe Biden rig presidential elections.”

“We’re going to come after you, whether it’s criminal or civilly, we’ll figure that out,” said Mr Patel, who joined the Trump administration in 2019 as a dubiously qualified intelligence official.


Trump doubles down on claim that his gaffes are ‘sarcastic’

Wednesday 6 December 2023 19:00 , Graeme Massie, Gustaf Kilander

Donald Trump has once again argued that his increasing number of gaffes is simply an expression of sarcasm.

The former president has repeatedly raged at the suggestion that he, at the age of 77, is not as sharp as he used to be.

During a Fox News town hall on Tuesday night, Mr Trump said: “I’ll say our real president is Barack Hussein Obama – they’ll say ‘he doesn’t know who the president is, he thinks it’s Barack Hussein’ – no, I’m being sarcastic.”

Just last week, Mr Trump claimed that he deliberately mixes up Joe Biden and Barack Obama’s names as he angrily denied that he is “cognitively impaired”.

Mr Trump took to Truth Social to defend himself and claimed he had deliberately mistaken Mr Biden for Mr Obama to show that “others” may have a “very big influence” in running the country.

“Whenever I sarcastically insert the name Obama for Biden as an indication that others may actually be having a very big influence in running our Country,” Mr Trump wrote in the post on 27 November.

“Ron DeSanctimonious and his failing campaign apparatus, together with the Democrat’s Radical Left ‘Disinformation Machine,’ go wild saying that ‘Trump doesn’t know the name of our President, (CROOKED!) Joe Biden. He must be cognitively impaired.”


Trump allies defend his ‘day one’ dictatorship: ‘All he needs’

Wednesday 6 December 2023 18:16 , Alex Woodward

Donald Trump was offered a chance to shut down warnings about his increasingly violent and authoritarian vision for his potential administration. Instead, he embraced it.

During an event on Fox News billed as a town hall on Tuesday, host Sean Hannity gave him a chance to clarify that “under no circumstances, you are promising America tonight, you would never abuse power as retribution against anybody.”

“Except for day one,” Mr Trump replied.

His supporters and campaign have framed his comments as a joke to attack his critics, a defence that has tried to rewrite and undermine his own words and actions over the last several months, including his explicit promises of a campaign of retribution and political vengeance against his rivals.

Hours before the town hall, his allies Steve Bannon and Kash Patel promised that another Trump administration would “come after” his political opponents and the media.

“We will go out and find the conspirators, not just in government but in the media,” said Mr Patel, a former Trump-era intelligence official who is reportedly considered for another high-level role in a potential Trump White House. “We’re going to come after the people in the media who lied about American citizens, who helped Joe Biden rig presidential elections. We’re going to come after you.”


Poll shows Donald Trump dominating GOP field as rivals sputter

Tuesday 5 December 2023 13:13 , John Bowden

Ahead of the fourth GOP debate in Alabama, Donald Trump is in his most comfortable polling position yet.

The ex-president remains atop the GOP field in a major way, having consolidated support from six in 10 Republican voters nationally according to a NewsNation/Decision Desk HQ poll released on Monday. Though Mr Trump will not appear this Wednesday for the debate held by NewsNation alongside his GOP fellows, his decision to skip the 2023-24 debate cycle appears to not have hurt his chances in the slightest.

Indeed, the poll shows few pieces of good news for his opponents. Mr DeSantis and Ms Haley are statistically tied, at 11 and 10 per cent respectively, while the former president’s base of support appears to trust him more on the most important issues to voters this year, including the economy.

Mr DeSantis, who has seen his campaign flagging for months, remains the second choice of a much wider segment of the party than any other candidate. But even that suggests that his base is more closely aligned with Mr Trump’s, and suggests that the former president’s support could surge even higher were the Florida governor to drop out.


Who qualified for the fourth GOP debate?

Monday 4 December 2023 18:31 , Gustaf Kilander

Three candidates have so far qualified for the fourth Republican primary debate, set to be hosted by NewsNation on 6 December.

Former Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, former UN Ambassador and South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley, and biotech entrepreneur and anti-woke author Vivek Ramaswamy have all qualified for the Wednesday night showdown at the University of Alabama in Tuscaloosa.

The debate will be moderated by former Fox News host Megyn Kelly, now of SiriusXM, NewsNation’s Elizabeth Vargas, and Eliana Johnson, the editor of the Washington Free Beacon.

The debate will be broadcast on NewsNation, a subscription-based network, and it will be streamed online on Rumble, the video-hosting site mainly used by right-wing voters. The first three debates were hosted by Fox News, Fox Business, and NBC News.

To qualify, candidates had to acquire 80,000 donors – at least 200 from 20 states and territories – and at least six per cent support in at least two national polls or one national survey and two polls from the early states – Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Nevada.

Former President Donald Trump has also qualified but he’s not expected to attend. He skipped the first three debates. The ex-president will instead attend a fundraiser for his Make America Great Again (MAGA) super PAC in Florida, Reuters reported.

Mr Trump isn’t planning on counter-programming the debate with his own event as he has done previously, Trump co-campaign manager Chris LaCivita said, according to the news agency.

The campaign of former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie has said that they’ve fulfilled “all” the criteria to qualify, by the Republican National Committee has yet to confirm if he will appear on stage.

While Alabama is a deeply red state where Republicans easily win statewide races against Democrats, it does host a somewhat early primary contest on 5 March.

Was Ron DeSantis lacklustre campaign doomed from the start?

Monday 4 December 2023 15:14 , Gustaf Kilander

Ron DeSantis entered the Republican primary this spring as the preeminent challenger to former President Donald Trump and as the heir apparent taking on the old guard.

The Florida governor was “Trump without the baggage,” a far-right fighter ready to rumble with the “radical left” and govern more productively than the chaotic reality TV star, blustering real estate mogul and grievance-filled showman.

In a race against the oldest president in US history, being born in the late 1970s instead of the mid-1940s would also be helpful. Part of the thinking was that Mr DeSantis could win the White House by simply standing next to President Joe Biden on the debate stage and not looking old.

But was his floundering campaign always inevitable? Was Mr DeSantis always too awkward to be president?


DeSantis, Haley tied for second as Trump remains far ahead

Monday 4 December 2023 15:06 , Gustaf Kilander

Florida Governor Ron DeSantis and former South Carolina Governor and UN Ambassador Nikki Haley are virtually tied for second place while former President Donald Trump remains far ahead in GOP primary polling.

A NewsNation and Decision Desk HQ poll gave Mr DeSantis a slim lead – 11 per cent to Ms Haley’s 10 per cent. Mr Trump received 60 per cent in the poll.

Biotech entrepreneur and anti-woke author Vivek Ramaswamy received about six per cent, former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie got about three per cent and former Arkansas Governor Asa Hutchinson and North Dakota Governor Doug Burgum each got one per cent or less.

The poll surveyed 1,090 self-identified Republican voters between 26 and 27 November.

Biden now holds slight lead over Trump in new national poll

Monday 4 December 2023 14:50 , Andrew Feinberg

A survey of American citizens taken last week shows President Joe Biden holding a very slim advantage over former president Donald Trump in a hypothetical national popular vote matchup, even as respondents remain unimpressed by a re-run of the 2020 presidential election.

The poll of 1,500 US citizens was commissioned by The Economist and conducted by YouGov from 25 November to 27 November. It found that of the 1,500 respondents, 44 per cent of them said they would cast ballots for the 46th President were the 2024 election to be held at the time they were surveyed.

By contrast, 42 per cent of respondents said they would cast a ballot for Mr Trump.

The positive result for Mr Biden comes amid continuing questions over whether he can reassemble the broad, multiethnic coalition that powered his 2020 victory over Mr Trump.

Indeed, a full 22 per cent of respondents expressed doubt over whether they believe Mr Biden president will win next year. By contrast, 44 per cent said they believe Mr Trump will win.


Trump far ahead in national GOP primary polling average

Monday 27 November 2023 19:41 , Gustaf Kilander

As of 27 November, former President Donald Trump remains far ahead of the rest of the field, according to FiveThirtyEight’s polling average.

  1. Donald Trump – 59.9%

  2. Ron DeSantis – 12.4%

  3. Nikki Haley 9.8%

  4. Vivek Ramaswamy 5.1%

  5. Chris Christie 2.9%

  6. Doug Burgum 0.9%

  7. Asa Hutchinson 0.7%

Trump leads Biden in new poll as Israel conflict fuels criticism

Monday 20 November 2023 18:30 , John Bowden

A new poll from NBC News this weekend shows President Joe Biden in his worst position yet — with no signs of clearer skies ahead.

The sitting president now trails his likely 2024 challenger, Donald Trump, among voters nationally; despite the ex-president’s ongoing legal escapades, Mr Biden trails his opponent 46-44.

The reason for his continued slide is clear: Americans are quickly souring on the president’s handling of US foreign policy and America’s presence on the world stage. The spiraling conflict in Israel has only served to turn America’s youngest voters, long a Democratic-leaning demographic, against the president as seven in ten voters age 18-34 disapprove of Mr Biden’s response.

His approval rating is now at 40 per cent — the lowest recorded by NBC at any point during Mr Biden’s presidency. This poll also marks the first time Mr Biden has trailed Mr Trump in an NBC survey.

A massive generational divide in the US has grown in recent weeks amid the Israel-Hamas conflict. Older generations have largely favoured the status quo in Washington, where politicians have lined up in defence of Israel’s military actions in the Gaza Strip and elsewhere.

Younger Americans have split widely in favour of the US calling for a ceasefire in the region, and largely oppose the recent campaign of Israel’s military which has caused a steep civilian death toll in the Gaza Strip.

Where Democrats stand in the polls

Monday 20 November 2023 17:30 , Ariana Baio

Polling, collected from FiveThirtyEight and RealClearPolitics shows that President Joe Biden is, as expected, leading the Democratic 2024 polls by a large margin.

So far, only two other candidates have declared their intent to run for president as a Democrat – self-help author Marianne Williamson and Congressman Dean Phillips.

President Joe Biden – Approximately 71 per cent

Marianne Williamson - Approximately 8.2 per cent

Dean Phillips - Approximately 4.7 per cent

DeSantis says both Trump and Biden are too old to run the country

Monday 20 November 2023 16:30 , Rachel Sharp

Ron DeSantis has said he thinks both Donald Trump and Joe Biden are too old to run the country as the president celebrates his 81st birthday today.

Speaking to CNN’s Jake Tapper on Sunday, the Florida governor and 2024 hopeful claimed that he is in the “prime of my life” while his two rivals are far from it.

“I just think that that’s something that has been shown with Joe Biden. Father Time is undefeated. Donald Trump is not exempt from any of that,” he said.

Read more here:

DeSantis says both Trump and Biden are too old to run the country

Trump more popular with younger voters in NBC poll

Monday 20 November 2023 15:52 , Ariana Baio

Former president Donald Trump is more popular with younger voters, polling from NBC shows.

When asking voters, aged 18 to 34, which candidate they would vote for in a matchup, 46 per cent said Mr Trump while only 42 per cent said Mr Biden.

The findings could pose a problem for Mr Biden, who was able to win the presidency in 2020 in part thanks to younger voters.

NBC’s poll reflects similar results found by a recent CNN poll but shows opposite results to polling from Quinnipiac, New York Times, Fox News and more which indicate Mr Biden has a strong lead with younger voters.

Nikki Haley would beat Biden and DeSantis in New Hampshire, new poll finds

Friday 17 November 2023 21:59 , Gustaf Kilander

GOP presidential contender Nikki Haley would beat both Florida Governor Ron DeSantis and President Joe Biden in New Hampshire, according to a new poll.

While Ms Haley, the former UN Ambassador and governor of South Carolina, is still far behind her former boss, ex-President Donald Trump, in the Granite State, she’s gaining support, an Emerson College survey found.

Ms Haley received 18 per cent in the poll of New Hampshire primary voters, compared to Mr Trump’s 49 per cent, Mr DeSantis’s seven per cent, and nine per cent for former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie.

Ms Haley is the only GOP candidate who would beat Mr Biden in the state, the poll showed, with Ms Haley getting 45 per cent to Mr Biden’s 39 per cent. Mr Trump, on the other hand, is five points behind Mr Biden in the poll.

The poll by Emerson College surveyed 917 registered voters between 10 and 13 November. Ms Haley is up 14 points compared to August, while Mr DeSantis is down 10 points since March.


Nikki Haley would beat Biden and DeSantis in New Hampshire, new poll finds

Trump first in New Hampshire, with Haley second and Christie in third place: CNN poll

Thursday 16 November 2023 21:14 , Gustaf Kilander

Donald Trump has a strong lead in the second 2024 contest and the first nation primary in New Hampshire.

A new CNN and University of New Hampshire poll shows the former president in pole position in the state's GOP primary, which follows the Iowa caucuses.

The poll also shows that Mr Trump's former UN ambassador, ex-South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley, has nabbed the second spot in state at this stage of the race, with former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie also rising in the field, taking third place.

Mr Trump isn't doing as well in New Hampshire as he is nationally but still gets 42 per cent support in the state among likely GOP primary voters in New Hampshire.

Twenty per cent say they would back Ms Haley at this time, and 14 per cent are supporting Mr Christie.

Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, who started out the race as Mr Trump's main rival, gets single-digit support, coming in fourth at nine per cent.

Biotech entrepreneur and anti-woke author Vivek Ramaswamy garnered the backing of eight per cent.

Ms Haley's support has grown by eight points compared to September, Mr Ramaswamy has dropped by about five points and the support for Mr Trump and Mr Christie has remained mostly steady.

Biden leads Trump by two points in head to head poll

Wednesday 15 November 2023 18:28 , Gustaf Kilander

A two-day poll that finished on Tuesday conducted by Reuters and Ipsos found that 51 per cent of the 1,006 adults polled across the country backed President Joe Biden, with 49 per cent supporting his predecessor Donald Trump.

About half of all Biden backers said they were voting for the president to keep Mr Trump out of the White House rather than to give Mr Biden another term.

Meanwhile, only 38 per cent said they would vote “to support Joe Biden and his policies”.

Among those backing the ex-president, 42 per cent said they were voting in support of Mr Trump and 40 per cent said they were voting against Mr Biden.

2024 Polls: RFK Jr gets 20 per cent in Biden-Trump three-way race

Wednesday 15 November 2023 18:20 , Gustaf Kilander

Anti-vaccine conspiracy theorist and independent presidential candidate Robert F Kennedy Jr received 20 per cent in a three-way race with President Joe Biden and his predecessor Donald Trump in a poll conducted by Reuters and Ipsos.

Thirty per cent backed Mr Biden in the poll, with 32 per cent supporting Mr Trump.

The online poll collected the views of 1,006 US adults across the country.

Trump wins Electoral College but Biden wins popular vote

Monday 13 November 2023 19:44 , Gustaf Kilander

President Joe Biden would win the popular vote but narrowly lose the Electoral College to his predecessor Donald Trump if the election was held today.

The new research comes from Stack Data Strategy, showing that Mr Trump would win the Electoral College 292 to 246 with Mr Biden winning the popular vote 49 to 48 per cent.

Stack surveyed 15,000 Americans and used those results to make state-level projections, Politico notes.

Mr Trump winning is based on him winning four states– Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. These were the states with the closest margins in the 2020 election. They all went from Mr Trump in 2016 to Mr Biden in 2020 and this poll sees Mr Trump take them back by small margins – 1,4 per cent in Arizona, 3,3 in Georgia, 2,3 in Pennsylvania, and 0,9 in Wisconsin.

If other candidates are added to the mix – such as independents Robert F Kennedy Jr and Cornel West, and candidates from the Green and Libertarian parties – Mr Trump also manages to win Nevada and its six electoral votes. The additional candidates together picked up 10 per cent in that state.

The survey also showed Mr Trump beating Vice President Kamala Harris and California Governor Gavin Newsom.

But Mr Biden bested Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, winning the Electoral College 359 to 179.

In the four tight states projected to go to Mr Trump, when respondents are asked about “other” candidates, they pick up a smaller share of the vote – 4 per cent in Arizona, 2,6 in Georgia, 3,1 in Pennsylvania, and 3.2 in Wisconsin.

But when respondents were asked specifically about Mr Kennedy, Mr West, and the availabilities of third parties, the support rose to between eight and 11 per cent.

Where the Republican candidates stand in the polls

Monday 13 November 2023 17:00 , Ariana Baio

After the third Republican debate last week, voters are re-assessing how they feel about the remaining GOP candidates.

Ron DeSantis is polling at approximately 14 per cent.

Nikki Haley is polling at approximately 8.8 per cent.

Chris Christie is polling at approximately 2.8 per cent.

Vivek Ramaswamy is polling at approximately 5 per cent.

Asa Hutchinson, Doug Burgum and Ryan Binkely are all polling below 1 per cent.

So far, former president Donald Trump remains far ahead of any other candidate in national polls with a +44 point average over his political opponents, according to RealClearPolitics and FiveThirtyEight. 

Mr Trump did not participate in the third debate and instead hosted a rally nearby the venue where Republican candidates hashed it out.

Despite the ex-president’s opposition toward joining his fellow candidates on the stage, he has a strong lead in swing states over any other campaign – including Democrats.

Tim Scott staffers say he didn’t tell them about dropping out of 2024 race

Monday 13 November 2023 16:00 , Ariana Baio

Sen Tim Scott (R-SC) announced on Fox News on Sunday evening that he would suspend his presidential campaign after he failed to gain traction in the Republican primary.

Mr Scott made the announcement on the programme of former congressman Trey Gowdy, who came to Congress the same year he did in 2011.

Eric Garcia reports:

Tim Scott staffers say he didn’t tell them about dropping out of 2024 race

Tim Scott drops out of 2024 race as polling numbers declined

Monday 13 November 2023 15:11 , Ariana Baio

South Carolina Senator Tim Scott announced he would be suspending his 2024 presidential campaign on Sunday, saying it was not the time.

“I think the voters, who are the most remarkable people on the planet, have been really clear that they’re telling me, ‘not now, Tim.’” Mr Scott told Fox News.

For the months leading up to Mr Scott’s suspension, his national polling numbers had struggled to materialize into something substantial.

The senator’s number consistently remained below 4 per cent throughout his entire campaign.

In June, Mr Scott saw the highest of his polling numbers, according to FiveThirtyEight and RealClearPolitics with an average of 3.5 to 3.9 per cent.

But they slowly declined from there.

In September, Mr Scott was under 3 per cent and dropping every week.

VOICES: Why Democrats should (and shouldn’t) worry about Biden’s low poll numbers

Wednesday 8 November 2023 23:00 , Ariana Baio

”The latest case came on Sunday when The New York Times and Siena College released its survey showing that former president Donald Trump leads President Joe Biden in Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Nevada, the five major swing states.

Naturally, this set off alarm bells given that Mr Biden is running essentially unopposed, save for a quixotic run by Rep Dean Phillips (D-MN) and author Marianne Williamson. Running against an incumbent president would likely kill the career of any Democrat with some semblance of promise. So for now, it looks like Democrats are stuck with the president.”

Eric Garcia writes:

Why Democrats should (and shouldn’t) worry about Biden’s low poll numbers

Biden’s approval rating falls to lowest level this year

Wednesday 8 November 2023 20:00 , Ariana Baio

President Joe Biden’s approval rating has hit its lowest point so far this year, with one poll from Reuters/Ipsos reporting the president’s approval rating is just 39 per cent.

Approximately two months out from the first primary election, voters’ faith in Mr Biden is sinking on key issues like the economy, crime and immigration – which a majority of voters say are their biggest concerns

Ariana Baio reports:

Biden’s approval rating falls to lowest level this year

Voters indicate economy, immigration and gun policy are top issues

Wednesday 8 November 2023 16:30 , Ariana Baio

The economy, immigration, gun policy and voter rights are top issues for potential voters in 2024, a new CNN poll found.

Across age groups and races, the economy remains the number one concern for people. Nearly four years after the pandemic first occurred, the economy is still recovering from the devastating blow it took. Though Mr Biden has tried to reaffirm confidence in the economy with his “Bidenomics” package, voters are seemingly unconvinced it’s working.

After the economy, most people across age groups and races believe voting rights and election integrity are critical when casting their vote for president. Mr Trump is currently facing four criminal indictments, two of which are directly correlated to the January 6 attack on the Capitol and his alleged efforts to overturn 2020 election results.

Immigration is also a concern for all voters, with white non-college graduates listing it as a top issue.

For voters 18 - 24 years old, gun policy is the second-most important issue. The US has seen a large number of mass shootings this year. Gun violence is one of the leading causes of death in children in the US.

Climate change is also a top issue for young voters.

Trump leads Biden by two points in potential matchup

Wednesday 8 November 2023 15:31 , Ariana Baio

In a potential matchup between ex-president Donald Trump and current President Joe Biden, Mr Trump has a two-point lead.

Approximately 49 per cent of respondents said they would vote for Mr Trump over Mr Biden, who only received 45 per cent favourability, according to a new CNN poll.

The new survey also found that Mr Biden is losing steam with voters as his approval rating drops to 39 per cent – the lowest point this year. Potential voters indicated they are concerned about the economy, which they believe Mr Biden is doing a poor job of maintaining.

Lack of confidence in the economy and state of the US has led to issues with Mr Biden’s credibility.

Even in matchups against other potential Republican candidates, like Ron DeSantis or Nikki Haley, Mr Biden falls short.

Trump leads Biden in five out of six states likely to decide 2024

Sunday 5 November 2023 13:25 , Gustaf Kilander

Donald Trump is ahead of President Joe Biden in five swing states with a year left to the 2024 election.

When Mr Biden won in 2020, he won so after pitching himself as the electable candidate in the Democratic primary – the man who could take down then-President Trump.

Nearly three years into his presidency, Mr Biden is trailing Mr Trump, not because his predecessor is surging in popularity, Mr Trump is as unpopular as ever with American voters,  but because the oldest president in US history is seeing his ratings plummet.

In the six battleground states where the 2024 election is likely to be decided, Mr Biden only leads in one – Wisconsin, according to new polls by The New York Times and Siena College. Mr Trump is ahead in Pennsylvania, Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and Michigan, wins that would probably hand him the 270 electoral votes required for Mr Trump to return to the White House.

In the important swing states, Mr Biden is behind Mr Trump on average by four per cent, as Mr Trump receives 48 per cent and Mr Biden 44 per cent.

VIDEO: Nikki Haley mocks Ron DeSantis over rumours swirling around high-heels

Thursday 2 November 2023 14:35 , Gustaf Kilander

Nikki Haley doubles DeSantis’s numbers but still trails Trump in South Carolina poll

Thursday 2 November 2023 13:43 , John Bowden

Nikki Haley has clearly taken second place in the 2024 GOP race, but remains a distant threat to Donald Trump in South Carolina, according to a new poll of the early primary state conducted by CNN/SRSS.

Ms Haley previously served as the state’s governor, and made a name for herself there as an early adopter of the conservative culture war agenda while also winning support from some Democrats for her response to a massacre at a historic Black church. As a presidential candidate, she has battled Ron DeSantis for the runner-up slot for months, and appears to have some momentum behind her campaign while the Florida governor slips in some polling.

At the same time, however, Donald Trump has seen his support grow, not shrink, while he remains the clear frontrunner for the nomination. That reality was also reflected in the CNN poll, which showed Mr Trump leading Ms Haley by a margin of 53-22. Mr DeSantis registered support from 11 per cent of respondents in the state.

It’s a poll result that will have Ms Haley and her donors encouraged heading into the third GOP debate, while at the same time cognisant of the reality of the contest: This is Donald Trump’s race to lose.

Mr Trump is giving his opponents no free opportunities to overtake him. He is not scheduled to attend the third Republican primary debate, set to be hosted by NBC News next week, as he continues to avoid the prospect of a direct face-off between himself and Ms Haley, Mr DeSantis or ex-New Jersey Gov Chris Christie, who has been publicly itching for a confrontation with his former ally. The tactic is a direct reversal of his 2016 strategy, when Mr Trump relied on his bullish and insult-slinging GOP primary debate performances to vault his campaign into the lead.


Democrat ahead in Arizona Senate race

Thursday 2 November 2023 02:00 , Gustaf Kilander

Democratic Rep Ruben Gallego is the polling leader in the Arizona Senate race which also includes possible GOP nominee, former gubernatorial nominee, and staunch election denier and Trump supporter Kari Lake and Independent incumbent Kyrsten Sinema, a former Democrat.

National Republican Senatorial Committee chair Sen Steve Daines revealed the national GOP polling during a presentation on Tuesday, according to Punchbowl News.

He noted that Ms Sinema is pulling votes from the Republicans and not from her former party.

South Carolina Senator Lindsey Graham said that Ms Lake is set to win the GOP nomination and that they should get behind her as a party.

The poll showed Mr Gallego at 41 per cent, Ms Sinema at 17 per cent, and Ms Lake at 37 per cent.

Trump far ahead in South Carolina

Thursday 2 November 2023 00:00 , Gustaf Kilander

Donald Trump is leading in the early primary state of South Carolina, with the state’s former Governor Nikki Haley nabbing the second spot even as she remains far behind the former president.

A new poll by CNN and SSRS revealed that 53 per cent of likely GOP primary voters said that Mr Trump was their top choice, with Ms Haley supported by 22 per cent, and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis backed by 11 per cent.

South Carolina Senator Tim Scott comes in at six per cent support ahead of the 24 February primary in the Palmetto State following contests in Iowa, New Hampshire, and Nevada.

Trump files lawsuit to keep his name on Michigan ballot in 2024

Wednesday 1 November 2023 21:00 , John Bowden

Donald Trump has filed suit against Michigan’s secretary of state as he hopes to thwart a growing left-leaning legal movement aimed at blocking him from appearing on the 2024 ballot.

The effort, which draws its legal grounds from the 14th Amendment’s ban on supporters of a rebellion or insurrection from taking part in elected office, is a historic effort which could seriously challenge Mr Trump’s ability to win the Electoral College were it to succeed in even a single state.

Mr Trump is facing lawsuits aimed at blocking him from the ballot in a number of states, several of which were filed by the Washington-based ethics watchdog Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington (CREW). The Michigan suit, filed on Monday and first reported by The Detroit News, comes despite the Democratic secretary of state, Jocelyn Benson, stating that she would allow Mr Trump to be on the ballot unless a court were to intervene and prevent it.

A court hearing another suit in Colorado with the same goal began hearing arguments on Monday after the former president sought unsuccessfully to see that case dismissed.


How Trump’s 2024 presidential bid is under threat over ‘insurrection’ clause

Wednesday 1 November 2023 16:44 , John Bowden

As Donald Trump looks increasingly likely to be the 2024 Republican nominee for president, it continues to look more and more plausible that there could be a serious effort to keep him off the ballot entirely.

Following his presidency ending in a bloody battle on Capitol Hill, Mr Trump remains the de facto leader of the Republican Party, at least among its primary voting electorate.

Recent polls show the ex-president supported by as many as six in 10 of GOP primary voters nationally, while he also continues to hold commanding leads in early primary and caucus states like Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina.

But winning a primary election is one thing; winning a general election is another. And as Mr Trump consolidates his support within the GOP, some politicians and constitutional law experts alike are growing more vocal about the possibility of simply denying the Republican Party’s candidate from appearing on the ballot next November at all.


Biden sees ‘dramatic plummeting of Arab American voter support’ amid Israel-Hamas conflict

Tuesday 31 October 2023 20:42 , Gustaf Kilander

Support for President Joe Biden among Arab Americans is dropping amid the conflict between Israel and Hamas in Gaza as Mr Biden strongly supports his top ally in the Middle East.

A poll from the Arab American Institute (AAI) has revealed that not only has support for the president dropped, but the number of reported incidents of discrimination has gone up.

After the 7 October attacks, more than 1,400 people in Israel have died, while 8,000 people have died in Gaza following Israeli counterattacks.

Mr Biden’s “rock-solid and unwavering support” for Israel has led to the “dramatic plummeting of Arab American voter support for President Biden” among the 3.7 million Arab Americans in the US, according to AAI.

“Support among Arab American voters for Biden has plummeted from 59% in 2020 to 17% today,” the institute noted.

For the first time in the 26 years that the AAI has conducted polling, a majority of Arab Americans didn’t prefer the Democratic Party – and 40 per cent said they would back former President Donald Trump in 2024. That’s a five-point increase compared to 2020 and the highest percentage ever in polling shows Arab American support of the GOP.

According to The Guardian, the president and co-founder of AAI, James Zogby, said: “It’s important for our organizing that we know how the community is positioning itself in this. And it’s important for us to let the administration know – you’re at risk of losing this particular component group of the community.”

The most unpopular senator has officially been crowned

Tuesday 31 October 2023 20:23 , Gustaf Kilander

West Virginia Democratic Senator Joe Manchin has been named as one of the most unpopular senators in the US.

Mr Manchin is part of a dying breed of politicians on either side of the aisle who are able to win statewide in states where the presidential nominee of the opposite party usually wins by a large margin. In 2020, former President Donald Trump received nearly 69 per cent of the vote in the state.

Mr Manchin, a former governor, has declined to say if he’ll run for senate re-election next year as the state’s popular current governor, Republican Jim Justice, is gearing up to take him on. Mr Manchin has also not ruled out an independent bid for president.

Even as Mr Manchin is one of the most unpopular senators in the country, his approval rating in West Virginia increased by four per cent since the first quarter of this year and his disapproval rating declined by seven points, according to Morning Consult.

The boost in popularity mostly came from Republican voters, but as a group, they’re still much more likely to approve of rival Mr Justice.


Biden and Trump tied at 37 per cent, poll shows

Wednesday 25 October 2023 18:27 , Gustaf Kilander

President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump are tied at 36.5 per cent in a hypothetical four-way race including two independents – Robert F Kennedy Jr and Cornel West.

In a Suffolk University/USA TODAY poll shared on Sunday, in a survey that included a thousand registered voters, 366 said they would back Mr Biden and another 366 said they would support Mr Trump.

Mr Kennedy, the anti-vaccine conspiracy theorist who launched a bid to win the Democratic nomination before restarting his campaign as an independent, got 13 per cent, while Mr West, a professor who started out as a Green Party candidate but is now also an independent, received four per cent.

Eight per cent said they were undecided and two per cent declined to give an answer.

The support for independents is unusually high and can affect both Mr Biden’s and Mr Trump’s chances of winning the White House again.

Mr Kennedy’s policy stances overlap with both Mr Biden and Mr Trump – such as his support for the middle class for Mr Biden and his isolationist foreign policy and anti-vaccine stance, which has resonated with Trump supporters even as the former president has voiced support for vaccines.

Poll suggests RFK Jr campaign could help Biden beat Trump

Thursday 19 October 2023 17:46 , Gustaf Kilander

The independent presidential bid launched by anti-vaccine conspiracy theorist Robert F Kennedy Jr after dropping out of the Democratic primary may help President Joe Biden beat Republican frontrunner and former President Donald Trump in 2024, a poll has shown.

Democrats have previously shared concerns that the RFK campaign may harm Mr Biden.

In a national poll from NPR, PBS NewsHour and Marist, including only Mr Biden and Mr Trump, Mr Biden leads 49 to 46 per cent, a lead of three per cent.

When Mr Kennedy Jr is included, 44 per cent backed Mr Biden to Mr Trump’s 37 per cent, giving Mr Biden a lead of seven per cent.

The director of Marist College Institute for Public Opinion, Lee Miringoff, said in a statement: “Although it’s always tricky to assess the impact of a third-party candidate, right now Kennedy alters the equation in Biden’s favour.”

“What this does speak to, however, is that about one in six voters are looking for another option, especially independents,” the director added.

Biden beats Trump in new poll – but loses to DeSantis and Haley

Friday 13 October 2023 19:51 , Josh Marcus

No matter what seems to happen – heading to face a fraud trial in New York, skipping the Republican primary debates, facing pushback for praising Hezbollah – Donald Trump’s lead in the GOP primary field only seems to grow more permanent.

A new Fox News poll, conducted earlier this month, shows that Mr Trump has four times the support of his nearest rival, Florida governor Ron DeSantis, among Republican primary voters.

Mr Trump is lapping the competition, leading with 59 per cent support among polled voters, compared with Mr DeSantis’s 13 per cent support.

Nikki Haley, the former US ambassador to the United Nations, is the only other candidate to crack double digits, with 10 per cent support, while support for former vice president Mike Pence, entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy, former New Jersey governor Chris Christie, and US senator Tim Scott is so minimal it’s mostly swallowed by the poll’s margin of error.

But it’s been this way for months, with Mr Trump leading and the occasional shifting of second and third place in the Republican race.


Fewer people think Biden won fairly in 2020 than Trump in 2016, poll shows

Thursday 12 October 2023 19:00 , Kelly Rissman

53 per cent of Biden voters said they could not think of anything that would make them not support the president’s re-election, compared to 17 per cent who said there could be something that could change their vote.

The poll participants were also asked about the rivals’ previous elections.

In this same voting group, 61 per cent said they think the former president won “fair and square” in 2016, while only 52 per cent say the same about Mr Biden’s win in 2020.

Another poll this week showed Mr Biden and Mr Trump as head-to-head in Nevada. The CNN poll found that 46 per cent of voters back the current president while 45 per cent prefer his predecessor.

Despite facing federal and state legal challenges including four separate sets of criminal charges, Mr Trump has remained at the top of the GOP polls. He is vying for the Republican nomination in a crowded field, which also includes entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy, former Vice President Mike Pence, former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley, Florida Gov Ron DeSantis, South Carolina Sen Tim Scott, former New Jersey Gov Chris Christie, North Dakota Gov Doug Burgum, and former Arkansas Gov Asa Hutchinson.

Earlier this week, former Texas Congressman Will Hurd dropped out of the race, and endorsed Nikki Haley.

New poll places Trump nine points ahead of Biden in Pennsylvania

Thursday 12 October 2023 17:40 , Kelly Rissman

A new poll of Pennsylvania voters has put former president Donald Trump nine points ahead of President Joe Biden in the state.

The Emerson College 11 October poll revealed the former president had 45 per cent of the vote compared to Mr Biden’s 36 per cent. Eleven per cent of the participants said they would vote for “someone else” while eight percent remained undecided.

Mr Biden won the state in 2020 by a slim margin, which prompted Mr Trump to challenge his loss, which ultimately was rejected in the courts.

According to the poll, 50 per cent of Trump voters said they can’t think of anything the former president might do in the near future that would make them choose not to support him in 2024.

Meanwhile, 22 per cent said they can think of something he might say or do to sway their vote away from Mr Trump.


New poll places Trump nine points ahead of Biden in Pennsylvania

Nikki Haley’s campaign raises $11m as poll puts her as Trump’s closest rival

Tuesday 10 October 2023 18:54 , Mike Bedigan

Republican presidential candidate Nikki Haley raised over $11m from July to September, her campaign has said, further boosting her chances of being the person to take on current favourite Donald Trump.

The former South Carolina governor is vying for position with Ron DeSantis, having recently taken the lead in some polls with just over three months to go before the first GOP nominating contest in Iowa.

Despite her increased haul – up from $7.3m last quarter – Ms Haley still lags behind the Florida governor in terms of fundraising, and even further behind former president Trump.

Ms Haley’s campaign said she had attracted nearly 40,000 new donors in the third quarter alone and that she had $9.1m cash on hand. It follows strong performances in both GOP debates and a tireless campaign schedule.

“We have seen a big surge in support and have real momentum,” Haley spokesperson Olivia Perez-Cubas said in a statement.


Biden and Trump essentially tied in Nevada, new poll shows

Tuesday 10 October 2023 18:23 , Gustaf Kilander

Donald Trump and Joe Biden are close to being tied in a new CNN poll of Nevada, revealing that the state is set to be a battleground yet again in 2024.

Nevada is also the first western state to hold its GOP primary contest in February, possibly strengthening Mr Trump’s overwhelming lead.

The CNN poll, conducted by SRSS, found that 46 per cent of voters back the current president while 45 per cent prefer his predecessor.

Mr Biden won Nevada in 2020 by just two percentage points. Among those supporting the Democrat, more than half – 55 per cent – said their vote would be more against Mr Trump than in support of Mr Biden. Forty-four per cent said their vote was motivated more by their support for the president.

Among those backing Mr Trump, 63 per cent their vote was a show of support for the former president.

The Nevada caucuses on 8 February next year are set to be the third GOP primary contest. Mr Trump currently has the support of 65 per cent of likely GOP voters.

Ron DeSantis claims Trump has poll lead because voters are undecided

Monday 9 October 2023 20:17 , Gustaf Kilander

Ron DeSantis told Fox News Digital that Donald Trump is so far ahead in most GOP primary polls because voters are still “on the fence”.

“I don’t think any of it matters,” Mr DeSantis told the press at a recent event. “You’ve got to put yourself in a position to have the type of infrastructure needed to do well when the voting starts. But what’s going to happen is none of the polls are going to matter when people start voting. That’s what’s going to determine everything.”

“I think at the end of the day, a majority of people have not made a decision,” he told Fox News Digital. “So if you’re polling someone, and you push them, well if they’re kind of on the fence and they know Trump more than anyone, they’re more likely to do that.”

He added, “If you really pull down, half the electorate is up for grabs in these states, and we’re going to earn the votes in all of those states. We have the organization, we have the work ethic, and we have the message to be able to get it done”.

Almost half of all Americans expect another insurrection attempt after 2024 election

Monday 9 October 2023 18:26 , Gustaf Kilander

A new poll has revealed that voters are pessimistic about the state of American democracy and the peaceful transfer of power that faced the most serious attack in recent times on January 6, 2021.

Among the 2,700 registered voters polled by Survey USA, most say that democracy is threatened and most also expect further political violence in the future.

Almost half said they expect a similar incident to the 2021 insurrection to take place after the next election.

Forty-six per cent said violence is very or somewhat likely after the 2024 election – 53 per cent of Democrats, 45 per cent of independents, and 42 per cent of Republicans.

Black and Latino voters Pennsylvania overwhelmingly back Biden

Monday 9 October 2023 15:08 , Gustaf Kilander

A Pennsylvania poll has revealed that Black and Latino voters strongly support President Joe Biden in a 2024 showdown with former President Donald Trump.

The Susquehanna Polling and Research Inc survey revealed that 80 per cent of Black voters would back Mr Biden, while 19 per cent said they would vote for Mr Trump.

Mr Biden won back Pennsylvania for the Democrats in 2020 by a margin of 1.2 per cent, with the president getting the support of 92 per cent of Black voters, according to a CNN exit poll.

Seventy-four per cent of Black voters said they would back Mr Biden to be the Democratic nominee in 2024, while nine per cent said they preferred anti-vaccine conspiracy theorist Robert Kennedy Jr. Mr Kennedy is expected to launch an independent campaign for president.

Eighty-one per cent of Latino Pennsylvanians said they would support Mr Biden, compared to 19 per cent who said they would vote for Mr Trump.

Nikki Haley emerges as Trump’s top GOP rival in new poll

Friday 6 October 2023 20:00 , Graig Graziosi

Former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley’s bid for the Republican nomination just got a little more real – she’s beating Florida Governor Ron DeSantis in the polls for the first time.

Mr DeSantis and Donald Trump have been the only two names to pull significant numbers in polling since the Republican presidential primary began. While Mr Trump commands a significant lead over Mr DeSantis, the Florida governor was still the clear favorite among candidates who sought to challenge the former president.

For a short time, the party seemed to be warming to anti-woke businessman Vivek Ramaswamy, but polling has cooled, and likely due in no small part to the lashing he received at the hands of Ms Haley.

A Suffolk University/Boston Globe/USA Today survey released on Wednesday shows Ms Haley beating Mr DeSantis, 19 per cent to 10 per cent. The voters in that poll were all from New Hampshire, where the first primary of election season sets the stage for the rest of the year and can provide a significant national boost to whichever candidate comes out on top.

Mr DeSantis was the favoured candidate to challenge Mr Trump, but his popularity has waned as the primary season continues. A Yahoo News/YouGov poll from the end of August showed an 11 per cent drop in Mr DeSantis’ support — from 23 per cent to 12 per cent.


Nikki Haley pulling ahead of DeSantis in two early states in battle for second place behind Trump

Thursday 5 October 2023 19:57 , Gustaf Kilander

Nikki Haley is beating Florida Governor Ron DeSantis in polls in two of the early primary states.

The former UN ambassador and South Carolina Governor is in second place behind former President Donald Trump in both her home state and New Hampshire.

In New Hampshire, a new poll of Republican primary voters by Suffolk University, The Boston Globe, and USA Today found that Ms Haley received the support of 19 per cent of likely primary voters, her highest numbers in the state so far in the 2024 campaign. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis is in third place in the state at 10 per cent while all other candidates are in the single digits. Mr Trump is far ahead at 49 per cent.

In her home state, Ms Haley is pulling away from fellow South Carolinian Senator Tim Scott.

In Winthrop University’s October poll of the state, Ms Haley got 17 per cent, Mr DeSantis 12 per cent, and Mr Scott 6 per cent.

Nikki Haley comes in behind Trump in New Hampshire primary poll

Wednesday 4 October 2023 13:13 , Gustaf Kilander

Nikki Haley has risen to second place behind Donald Trump in New Hampshire, according to a new poll of Republican primary voters by Suffolk University, The Boston Globe, and USA Today.

The former South Carolina governor and UN Ambassador received 19 per cent of likely primary voters, her highest numbers in the state so far in the 2024 campaign. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis is in third place in the state at 10 per cent while all other candidates are in the single digits.

Most of Iowa and New Hampshire voters are considering candidates other than Trump

Saturday 30 September 2023 18:00 , Gustaf Kilander

While Mr Trump has a massive lead with the national Republican electorate, voters in the early-voting states of Iowa and New Hampshire are looking beyond the former president.

More than three-quarters of likely Republican voters in those states are either not even considering Mr Trump, or are considering him but are also looking at other options, according to a poll by CBS News and YouGov.

But when voters were asked who they would back right now, Mr Trump topped the poll by 30 points in Iowa and by 37 points in New Hampshire.

Ron DeSantis was supported by 21 per cent in Iowa and 13 per cent in New Hampshire.

Trump has biggest primary poll lead since George W Bush in 2000 election

Saturday 30 September 2023 17:00 , Gustaf Kilander

Donald Trump has the biggest primary poll lead since George W Bush in the 2000 election.

According to a CNN polling average of five national surveys conducted between 7 and 24 September, Mr Trump has the backing of 58 per cent of Republican voters.

Florida Governor Ron DeSantis is supported by 15 per cent – 43 points behind Mr Trump.

At a similar time in the 2000 campaign, in September 1999, Mr Bush was a 62 per cent in the polls to Elizabeth Dole’s 10 per cent – a lead of 52 points.