2024 will be a survival trial for Ukraine

Representatives of the European External Affairs Service arrived in Kyiv
Representatives of the European External Affairs Service arrived in Kyiv

For Europe, victory or defeat in the Russian war will determine whether a new Great War will begin on the continent.

The beginning of 2024 showed a weak awareness by the free world of the consequences of even minimal delays in international aid to Kyiv and Ukraine’s weakening military position. Thus, it put an existential question before Ukraine: what can we do avoid defeat in 2024?

Read also: Victory begins with honesty

To win, or at least to not lose, we need to survive this year. And I’ll tell you this is a very ambitious goal, because:

— 78 countries will have elections of one type or another.

— The Middle East will flare up and expand the geography of conflicts.

— Ukraine will become a political hostage first in the United States, and eventually in the European Union.

— We must understand and explain to our people that the path to EU membership will not be easy, requiring major changes in Ukraine. This is a complex, time-consuming process that will require deep analysis and rethinking of everything about our state.

— The West will make a mistake in its de-escalation strategy, and we may face a serious challenge of holding the front line without a stable and predictable supply stream of weapons and other resources.

— Social divisions will deepen because all conflicts generate polarization.

— Threats of probable internal conflicts between domestic elites at various levels.

The West will make a mistake in its de-escalation strategy

These are very different complex challenges at a time when Ukraine is in the tenth year of war, the third year of Russia’s full-scale invasion; tired, sometimes confused, torn by pain, and exhausted by the search for some certainty.

However, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is part of a concerted plan to launch wars in other parts of the world.

For me personally, the next 7-10 years are increasingly determined by the potential new Great War and the definition of a new world order:

1. Global tensions are rising, humanity hasn’t been at peace for this long in the past, and unfortunately war is the only way to “relieve global tension.”

2. Revanchist regimes tend to begin major wars. There are at least four of them now, including China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea. The latter will do as the “elder brothers” say, so I’ll focus on the three main ones.

These three revanchist countries are very different, but they strive for something in common, namely the revision of world rules and centers of influence.

Read also: How Ukraine changed in two years of war

In addition, Africa remains full of unstable regimes and acute ideological and economic problems, kept simmering by Chinese money and Russian military proxies. All this requires serious global attention to the continent.

Finally, India. The world’s most populated country. The country that always avoids rigid coalitions and alliances, especially security ones. Its economy will grow while other countries in the region face intractable challenges. The upcoming elections will determine India’s future.

My personal bet is that in the future revision of the world order (which is inevitable in a situation where some global powers are declining and regional ones are becoming stronger), it is India and its position that will play one of the decisive roles.

Finally, the European continent is steadily approaching a breakout point. And here, simply helping Ukraine defeat Russia isn’t enough and irrelevant. Now there must be a transition to preparing for war, especially in terms of intra-EU coordination and joint efforts.

Read also: What price victory? — opinion

Ukraine’s victory is still possible. The key is the Europeans’ awareness of joint responsibility for the consequences of the Russian war in Ukraine, rather than a concerned observation from afar.

In fact, Europeans have limited choices. A victory could be a turning point and stop the inevitable movement towards another Great War on the continent, while a defeat would trigger it in the near future.

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Read the original article on The New Voice of Ukraine