2025 Oscars Best Director Predictions

Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.

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Best Director Commentary (Updated Nov. 25, 2024): Will this year’s Oscars miss the mark by not recognizing women directors again?

In an era where the lines between politics and Hollywood are more blurred than ever, the Academy’s longlist for best director feels noticeably sparse regarding women in contention. With the Directors Branch limited to just five nomination slots, the industry is left questioning whether any female directors will make the cut this year. Following the much-discussed Oscar snub of Greta Gerwig for “Barbie” in 2023, it’s another stark reminder of the challenges women continue to face in maintaining a steady presence in Oscar history.

Looking at the Academy’s nearly century-long track record, the statistics are telling. Since the inception of the Oscars, 601 films have been nominated for Best Picture, but only 22 of those were directed by women—a figure that underscores the ongoing disparity. However, the 2024 nominations did mark a historic milestone: for the first time, three of the ten Best Picture nominees—Justine Triet’s “Anatomy of a Fall,” Greta Gerwig’s “Barbie,” and Celine Song’s “Past Lives”—were directed by women. This surpasses the previous record and reflects a recent, gradual shift toward broader recognition of female-led storytelling. Notably, in five separate years—2009, 2010, 2020, 2021, and 2023—two female-directed films have made the Best Picture cut, suggesting some progress, albeit incremental.

Despite these gains, only eight women have been nominated for Best Director in the Oscars’ 96-year history. These trailblazing filmmakers include Lina Wertmüller for “Seven Beauties,” Jane Campion for both “The Piano” and “The Power of the Dog,” Sofia Coppola for “Lost in Translation,” Kathryn Bigelow for “The Hurt Locker,” Greta Gerwig for “Lady Bird,” Chloé Zhao for “Nomadland,” Emerald Fennell for “Promising Young Woman,” and, most recently, Justine Triet for “Anatomy of a Fall.” These figures, while encouraging, highlight a glaring gap that continues to raise questions about equity and representation in the industry.

So, which female auteurs might break through this year in a director lineup likely to include established names like Jacques Audiard and Ridley Scott and rising talents such as Sean Baker and Brady Corbet?

One strong, albeit unconventional, contender is Coralie Fargeat, whose genre-defying horror film “The Substance” has captivated audiences. Though genre bias and the film’s graphic content pose substantial obstacles, Fargeat’s work offers an arresting vision that challenges traditional cinematic boundaries. “The Substance” unfolds in three distinct chapters, centering on Elisabeth Sparkle (played by Demi Moore), a beloved aerobics star whose life is upended when she’s abruptly fired on her 50th birthday. Offered a mysterious serum that transforms her into an idealized version of her 20-year-old self, Elisabeth embarks on a disturbing journey that blends body horror with dark satire—a provocative commentary on beauty, age, and identity. Fargeat’s imaginative storytelling and daring visuals make “The Substance” a unique, though polarizing, contender that some argue would be a refreshing addition to the Best Director race.

Payal Kapadia is another hopeful in the running, whose film “All We Imagine as Light” drew acclaim at Cannes, where it won runner-up. Although India’s selection committee did not submit it as the country’s official entry for Best International Feature, distributors Janus Films and Sideshow are mounting a significant campaign for Kapadia. Their strategy mirrors Justine Triet’s “Anatomy of a Fall,” which won the Oscar for Original Screenplay despite not being chosen by France for the international feature category. “All We Imagine as Light” has resonated with critics and audiences alike, its lyrical storytelling and socio-political undertones offering a rich and nuanced portrait that could make it an unexpected yet deserving choice for recognition.

We also have Halina Rejin, writer and director of “Babygirl,” who is harnessing another knockout performance from Nicole Kidman that could factor into the conversation.

As the Academy contemplates its selections, the glaring question remains: will it continue to overlook the groundbreaking work of women directors, or will it finally broaden its vision to include these deserving voices? With contenders like Fargeat and Kapadia offering distinct and timely perspectives, the Oscars have a chance to honor the full scope of talent reshaping the cinematic landscape. The race remains open for now — teetering between traditional choices and the potential for long-overdue recognition.

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Variety Awards Circuit: Oscars

The 97th Oscars will be held on Sunday, March 2. All movie listings, titles, distributors, and credited artisans are not final and are subject to change.

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About the Academy Awards

The Academy Awards, better known as the Oscars, is Hollywood’s most prestigious artistic award in the film industry. Since 1927, nominees and winners have been selected by members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS). Nineteen branches are represented within the nearly 11,000-person membership. The branches are actors, animators, associates, casting directors, cinematographers, costume designers, directors, documentary, executives, film editors, makeup and hairstylists, marketing and public relations, members-at-large, members-at-large (artists’ representatives), music, producers, production design, short films, sound, visual effects and writers.

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