The polls continue to be in former vice president and Democratic presidential challenger Joe Biden’s favor in the lead-up to Election Day on Nov. 3.
But veteran political watchers say don’t count out President Trump, despite him being down badly in many polls with only 19 days before the election because of how he has handled the COVID-19 pandemic (among other things). Chief Washington policy analyst at Stifel Brian Gardner thinks Biden will pull out a win, though he does think there are ways Trump could tighten the polls and make it interesting.
“One, it’s the natural tendency of voters of a particular party to return home,” Gardner said on Yahoo Finance’s The First Trade.
Continued Gardner, “The Amy Coney Barrett hearings went really well for Republicans and for the nominee herself, so I think that helps Republican voters feel pretty good about voting for Trump again. And I also think that the Hunter Biden news that came out yesterday helps as well. I don’t want to suggest that I believe the story or don’t believe the story, to me that’s irrelevant. How social media handled it is going to fuel enthusiasm in the Republican base again to suggest that there is a double standard against Republicans. I don’t think people should under-estimate how that drives people tp the poll and affects their thinking as they pull the lever and cast their ballots.”
On Wednesday, the New York Post published a story that alleged a direct link between former Vice President Biden and the business dealings of his son Hunter. The Biden campaign hit back hard at the report, but Trump supporters had a field day on Twitter with the fresh fodder.
Ultimately, if Trump were to win in large part because of Gardner’s aforementioned reasons, it would surprise a lot of market goers. Investors have piled into the ‘blue wave’ theory come Election Day. The predominant view in the market right now is that a Biden win and Democratic control of the Senate and House would lead to a quick passing of a new stimulus package. That theoretically would be good for stocks as it would signal a jolt to economic growth in 2021, argues the likes of Goldman Sachs.
“All else equal, such a blue wave would likely prompt us to upgrade our forecasts. The reason is that it would sharply raise the probability of a fiscal stimulus package of at least $2 trillion shortly after the presidential inauguration on January 20, followed by longer-term spending increases on infrastructure, climate, health care and education that would at least match the likely longer-term tax increases on corporations and upper-income earners,” wrote Goldman Sachs economist Jan Hatzius in a recent note.
In effect, a Trump win is now the contrarian call on Wall Street — with a possibly solid payback if one positions correctly in the remaining weeks before the election. UBS Wealth Management strategist Laura Kane tells Yahoo Finance she does have those contrarian clients in the mix at the moment.
“So what we have actually done for our clients is provide different investment ideas for different scenarios because we do have clients with strong views. So if you are in that Red Wave camp, we do expect to see that certain sectors will perform well. Some of the ones I would highlight include financials, more traditional energy and even some health care could see some relief. Any of the areas that have been more under a cloud of uncertainty heading into the election could see somewhat of a relief rally in the event that we do get that Red Wave scenario. I would also highlight defense as another key area that would be supported under a Trump 2.0 scenario,” explained Kane.
What’s hot this week from Sozzi:
Watch Yahoo Finance’s live programming on Verizon FIOS channel 604, Apple TV, Amazon Fire TV, Roku, Samsung TV, Pluto TV, and YouTube. Online catch Yahoo Finance on Twitter, Facebook, Instagram, Flipboard, SmartNews, LinkedIn, and reddit.