BofA’s Hartnett Says Market Taking Clues From Trump 2016 Win

(Bloomberg) -- With the odds tilting toward both Donald Trump winning the US presidential election and Republicans controlling Congress, investors have started ramping up assets which had thrived in the wake of the former president’s 2016 victory, according to Bank of America Corp. strategist Michael Hartnett.

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Price action in the past week shows banks, small-cap stocks and the dollar are “front-running 2016 bull moves,” Hartnett and his BofA team of strategists wrote in a note. US equities and the greenback surged in the immediate aftermath of Trump’s win over Hillary Clinton in November 2016.

There are other signs of the “Trump Trade” gaining traction. Since the beginning of October, Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s basket of stocks set to outperform on a Republican victory has decisively overtaken its Democratic peer.

In contrast to stocks, US government bonds are structurally on a downward trend as neither of the two presidential candidates is running on a platform of balancing the federal budget, Hartnett said.

The BofA team pointed to betting odds showing rising expectations that the Republicans could pull off an electoral “sweep” — winning both the White House and the two chambers of Congress. Such an outcome would facilitate Trump’s agenda, notably new trade tariffs, tax cuts and further deregulation.

National polls, however, don’t all point to a Republican sweep. A Marquette Law School Poll national survey on Oct. 16 showed the Democratic candidate had 48% support among likely voters against 47% for Trump.

--With assistance from Michael Msika.

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