The Candidates Vying to Lead Sri Lanka’s $84 Billion Economy Out of Crisis

(Bloomberg) -- Sri Lanka’s upcoming presidential election has become a referendum on a $3 billion International Monetary Fund loan program that has helped to pull the island nation out of its worst economic crisis since independence. The contest pits the incumbent president who negotiated the bailout, against the country’s main opposition leader — both members of the Sri Lankan political elite — and a Marxist politician waging a populist campaign. The three have put contrasting views before voters over how to steer the South Asian nation past the crisis.

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An economic meltdown in 2022, culminating in acute food shortages, 70% inflation and a historic debt default, led to widespread street protests that forced strongman leader Gotabaya Rajapaksa to flee the country and step down.

Taking his place after a vote by parliament was Ranil Wickremesinghe. In 2023 the incumbent president agreed to a 48-month IMF bailout which entailed the government raising taxes, hiking utility bills, putting some state enterprises up for sale and overhauling the country’s debt. Despite a recovery in the nation’s economy, the austerity measures have made Wickremesinghe deeply unpopular and have prompted a challenge from rivals seeking to open fresh talks with the multilateral lender.

Wickremesinghe’s key opponents include Sajith Premadasa, 57, the main opposition leader in parliament. Also in the fray is Anura Kumara Dissanayake of the leftist Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna, a party that led insurgencies in the 1970s and 1980s and since re-branded itself as a mainstream political force. Both have vowed to reopen talks with the IMF, while Dissanayake has gained momentum with a strong message to combat corruption.

Some opinion surveys suggest the possibility of the Sept. 21 election going to a run-off for the first time since 1982. Here’s a look at the economic policy prescriptions of the main contenders in the race to become Sri Lanka’s next president:

Ranil Wickremesinghe

Wickremesinghe, 75, is contesting as an independent candidate, and has used his campaign to remind voters of how he brokered the IMF bailout, helped end acute shortages of energy, food and medicines and reinstated law and order after the 2022 protests. Under Wickremesinghe’s watch, inflation has slowed to low single-digits, borrowing costs have fallen, the economy has grown faster than expected and progress has been made to restructure debt.

On Thursday, the government said it reached an agreement in principle with bondholders to restructure about $12.6 billion in bonds, bringing it closer to finalizing its debt overhaul and unlocking more funds from the IMF.

Wickremesinghe is seeking a mandate to maintain the IMF program and keep the recovery on track through policy stability. He’s said the successes of his economic stewardship, including higher-than-targeted revenue collection, allows for some relief to households. Amid campaigning, Wickremesinghe has announced plans to hike salaries of state workers and reduce the personal income tax, which critics and opposition candidates have said are election sops.

On governance, Wickremesinghe has introduced legislative changes and published a plan to increase transparency and reduce corruption as recommended by a Government Diagnostic Assessment part of the IMF program.

Sajith Premadasa

In Sri Lanka’s 2019 presidential poll, Premadasa, 57, narrowly lost to Rajapaksa, who had won over voters with a pledge to be tough on national security after deadly Easter bomb attacks earlier that year. Premadasa leads the Samagi Jana Sandhanaya, which had split from Wickremesinghe’s party in 2020, and enjoys support from many poorer Sri Lankans and members of the Tamil minority.

A former minister of housing and health in previous governments, Premadasa wants to reopen negotiations with the IMF to ease the financial burden on working class people. He’s published an election blueprint that champions exports, equity, transparency and accountability.

Premadasa has also proposed establishing an independent public prosecutor to tackle corruption and assured that the rule of law will be strengthened under his administration.

Anura Kumara Dissanayake

Dissanayake, 55, is popularly known in Sri Lanka as AKD, and leads the National People’s Power — a coalition of leftist political parties and groups backed by protesters who ousted the Rajapaksa government in 2022. The protesters called for curbing the president’s executive powers, eradicating corruption, and holding the Rajapaksa family accountable for their actions in the lead up to the country’s economic crisis.

Dissanayake, whose roots are in Marxist socialist policy, has campaigned on a platform of clean governance and eliminating corruption. He has vowed to reopen negotiations with the IMF, and some in his party oppose the debt restructuring framework agreed with the multilateral lender.

Dissanayake’s backers have also called for greater scrutiny of investment deals with China and other nations to avoid future debt traps. In his manifesto, Dissanayake also pledged to re-examine international trade agreements in a bid to bolster exports.

Namal Rajapaksa

Namal, 38, is the scion of the Rajapaksa political dynasty. He is the eldest son of former president Mahinda Rajapaksa and nephew of the ousted president, Gotabaya. The clan is widely credited with ending the decades-old civil war with Tamil separatists in 2009 and seeking Chinese loans to fund ambitious infrastructure projects that partly contributed to Sri Lanka’s ballooning debt.

Namal, representing the Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna party, espouses his father’s mantra of rapid economic growth through investment and modernization, promising better job prospects for the youth and higher incomes for farmers. His aim is to double the country’s gross domestic product over the next decade.

Namal plans to digitize the state sector in a bid to enhance efficiency and transparency. He’s also looking toward eliminating indirect taxes and to turn Sri Lanka into an energy-exporting nation.

--With assistance from Asantha Sirimanne.

(Updates with bondholder agreement)

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