Carney, Freeland Duel for Trudeau’s Job as Ministers Opt Out
(Bloomberg) -- The race to succeed Justin Trudeau as Canada’s prime minister is increasingly looking like a two-way battle between former Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland and ex-central banker Mark Carney.
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The field further narrowed on Tuesday after Christy Clark, the former premier of British Columbia, announced she would not be entering the Liberal Party leadership contest, in part due to her lack of fluency in French. Industry Minister Francois-Philippe Champagne also bowed out of the race.
Liberals will decide on a new leader by March 9, which gives the winner of the contest about two weeks before Parliament returns. They can call an election immediately themselves, or else the government is expected to fall on a non-confidence vote soon afterwards, triggering one regardless.
Many other senior cabinet ministers who were expected to be contenders have already ruled themselves out, including Dominic LeBlanc, Melanie Joly, Anita Anand and Steven MacKinnon.
There are others who are said to be weighing bids, including government House Leader Karina Gould and Energy Minister Jonathan Wilkinson.
But with an entry deadline of Jan. 23 approaching, all signs are pointing to a race defined by Freeland, Trudeau’s former deputy who quit in devastating fashion last month, and Carney, the former governor of the Bank of Canada and the Bank of England.
Multiple polls, including one by Nanos Research Group for CTV News, have suggested Freeland and Carney are the top choices of Canadians to lead the Liberals.
There may also be some long-shot candidacies, such as from Liberal lawmakers Chandra Arya and Jaime Battiste, as well as businessman Frank Baylis, but to get on the ballot they face a steep challenge in raising the C$350,000 ($244,000) entry fee on short notice.
Trump Looms Large
Over the coming days, Freeland and Carney are both expected to formally announce their leadership campaigns.
Freeland will announce hers before Donald Trump’s inauguration on Jan. 20, said a person familiar with her plans. She will frame herself as the best leader for countering Trump’s threat of economy-wide 25% tariffs on Canada, given her experience leading the government’s trade negotiations during Trump’s first term.
In particular, Freeland will commit to “dollar-for-dollar” retaliation if Trump imposes any tariffs, said the person. Freeland’s policy proposal may not only take the form of tariffs, the person added, but potentially other forms of retaliation in order to effectively match the value of Trump’s actions.
Carney is expected to launch his campaign later this week, with the Hill Times newspaper reporting it will come in the Alberta capital of Edmonton, where he grew up.
His entry sets up a potentially awkward race against Freeland. In December, Trudeau tried to recruit Carney to replace her as finance minister, which led to her stinging resignation. Carney — who is also godfather to Freeland’s son — didn’t take the role.
The former central banker all but confirmed his leadership plans in an interview on The Daily Show on Monday night, describing himself as an “outsider” to Trudeau’s government but someone who has deep experience handling crises and has “a plan to deal with the challenges in the here and now.”
Carney currently holds a portfolio of private sector and nonprofit roles including as chairman of Brookfield Asset Management Ltd. and of Bloomberg Inc.
Pierre Poilievre’s Conservative Party — currently leading in the polls — has pushed back on Carney’s self-portrayal as an outsider, saying he supported Trudeau’s national carbon tax in the past and took up a post as an economic adviser to the Liberal Party in September.
“He praised the punishing Trudeau carbon tax, even calling it a model for the world in his book,” Melissa Lantsman, the Conservatives’ deputy leader, said in an emailed statement.
Quebec Candidates
Champagne’s decision to stay out may mean the Liberal Party won’t have a high-profile candidate from the French-speaking province of Quebec in the leadership contest.
That’s unusual. It’s a big risk for the Liberals if their candidate is not perfectly fluent in French, as the party must win a large number of Quebec seats to have a chance at forming the government after the next election.
No Liberal leader from outside of Quebec has won a general election in Canada since 1965. Freeland represents a district in Toronto; like Carney, she grew up in western Canada.
The Bloc Quebecois, a party that represents Quebec’s interests in Ottawa and promotes the province’s independence, is poised to make gains if the Liberals see their vote share drop, according to public opinion polls.
Joly and Champagne are still likely to play a role in shaping the race, given that they are influential francophone ministers who represent Quebec districts.
“What I want to see, and I’ve been pretty vocal about that, is a leader that will be able to communicate with Canadians with both official languages,” Champagne told reporters in Toronto. “And I intend to play a role to make sure that the interest of Quebec will be duly considered in this leadership race.”
--With assistance from Thomas Seal and Monique Mulima.
(Updates with additional information on the Liberal leadership race and the industry minister’s comments, beginning in the 18th paragraph.)
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