‘ALL IN’: Chilling warning of Australia's role in 'likely' US-China war

A leading expert on Australia's strategic defence has warned heightened military tensions in the Taiwan Strait between the US and China could escalate “to the point of no return", with Australia drawn in to what may become a nuclear conflict.

China and the US have both been steadily building up their presence in the Taiwan Strait, raising concerns that a war between the two world superpowers could be imminent.

Hugh White, an emeritus professor of strategic studies at the Australian National University, described the military deployments as “symbolic gestures” on one level.

“It is clearly intended as a demonstration on the resolve to use force if necessary,” he told the 7am podcast on Tuesday.

“The bad news is both sides think they can get what they want without going to war because the other side will back down.”

Professor White said that is what makes the situation so “dangerous”, fearing the worst if neither side retreats.

“The situation escalates to a point of no return,” he predicted.

“It is very bleak.

"This would be a war between great powers... and also a war between nuclear armed powers."

He said it could become the biggest conflict in half a century and it is “quite likely” to be nuclear.

“It would be a nightmare.”

A war over power and dominance

Chinese President Xi Jinping has asserted his territorial intention to bring Taiwan back under China’s control, a move the US will fiercely oppose at all costs.

“It’s not just about the future of Taiwan,” Prof White explained.

“But it’s also about the future of American power in Asia, the future of China’s role in Asia, which of them will be the dominant power.”

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How big a role will Australia play?

Professor White warned if a war broke out, the US would expect Australia to contribute “in a big way” because of the ANZUS treaty.

"Not the relatively small contributions we made to wars like Iraq an Afghanistan, but really all in," he said.

The agreement between Australia, New Zealand and the United States was signed in 1951 and aims to protect the security of the Asia Pacific.

He said the federal government “has edged toward being more forthcoming in identifying the fact that it would be willing to go to war” as Australia aligns itself more closely with America’s position, and our relationship with China deteriorates.

“I don’t get the impression the government has thought very carefully about this,” he said.

“In what is becoming one of the most difficult, complex and important strategic contests in Australia's history.”

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