China’s Power in Asia Plateauing Below US, Lowy Institute Says

(Bloomberg) -- China’s power in Asia is plateauing at a level below the US as its economic capability is curtailed, according to the Lowy Institute’s annual analysis of influence in the region.

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“Power in Asia remains a bipolar game, with the world’s two superpowers topping our ranking by a considerable margin,” the Sydney-based think tank said in a report Sunday.

“China’s power is neither surging nor collapsing, but plateauing,” the institute said. “Flatlining economic capability, driven by slower economic growth and longer-term structural challenges, means that China’s economic clout, while still commanding, is no longer growing.”

The Asia Power Index rankings encompass eight broad themes including military capability, diplomatic and cultural influence, resilience and future resources. The results also showed India overtaking Japan to be third-ranked, while Australia rose to fifth and Russia dropped to sixth.

The US leads China in six of eight broad measures, although in military capability the US advantage is eroding, the institute said.

For the first time, experts “judged that China is better able to deploy rapidly and for a sustained period in the event of an interstate conflict in Asia,” it said.

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India’s power is growing, driven by its rich resources and diplomatic influence — although its economic relationships remain a weak point, the institute said.

“New Delhi still has limited ability to project power and influence east of the Malacca Strait,” it said. “However, the fact that its influence remains well below the level promised by its resources suggests it still has ample potential for further growth as a major power.”

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