College football betting, odds: Why Houston should once again have value this season
With Week 0 only 10 days away, it's the perfect time to tunnel in on those last few futures bets before the games begin. College football's preseason rankings were released this week, and all the discussion is on the teams at the top. Who will compete for the College Football Playoff? Does Notre Dame deserve to be top five? These are great talking points that we have all year to hash out. But with the season kicking off next Saturday, the backend of the rankings is the best place to hunt for value. That approach led me to the No. 24-ranked Houston Cougars.
Houston is coming off a 12-2 season in which it ripped off 11 consecutive wins after dropping the opener to Texas Tech. The Cougars were one of my favorite bowl bets of last season. I locked them in as 3-point underdogs before they closed as favorites and went on to handle business in a 17-13 win against Auburn. Heading into this year with 13 returning starters, Houston still fits the profile of a team undervalued in the market. Here are two big reasons I'm backing the Cougars in 2022.
Houston has a Power 5 defense
A bettor's best friend can be a playmaking defense, and most of the stars from Houston's "Sack Avenue" are back to cause more havoc for opposing quarterbacks. Logan Hall moved on to the NFL, but DE Derek Parish is poised to build on his 5.5 sacks and 12 tackles for loss from last season. He played a major role in Houston finishing in the top six in both sacks and yards per game allowed. In addition, the Cougars' defensive line did its best work on third downs, when its ferocious pass rush fueled the nation's lowest third-down conversion rate (25.67%). With 10 players and six starters returning, AAC quarterbacks will be relieved to see them move on to the Big 12 after this season.
Clayton Tune gets his top target back
I can't say enough about the importance of continuity for a quarterback. Nathaniel "Tank" Dell's 1,329 yards and 12 touchdowns led all receivers in the AAC. Coach Dana Holgorsen keeping the Tune/QB Clayton Dell connection intact should allow Houston's offense to start the season firing on all cylinders. That's important, considering the Cougars open with road games at UTSA and Texas Tech.
Holgorsen also tapped into the transfer portal to bring more talent to the wide receiver room, which will only open things up more for the Cougars. Having the conference's best quarterback and wide receiver tandem to complement one of the nation's best defenses is a big reason why I am bullish on everything coming together for Houston this year.
Houston regular-season wins over 9 (-120)
The win total is one of the ways I bet on Houston this upcoming season. Set at a flat nine games, losing the wager would require a three-game drop-off from last year's 11-1 regular-season record. That's a safe bet, as I see this Houston team as at least a 10-win team with the potential for more.
The consecutive road games to start the season are the most challenging part of the schedule, but I'm not conceding either of them as losses. Houston is getting bet up to a six-point road favorite at UTSA, which indicates the sizable gap the market sees between these two teams. The Week 2 trip to Lubbock is a revenge spot, plus the Cougars are catching the Red Raiders with three new starters up front adjusting to a new offensive system. It should be a big day for "Sack Avenue."
Once they get past the first two games, the schedule is favorable the rest of the way. The Cougars avoid their two strongest AAC foes, Cincinnati and UCF. Outside of traveling to SMU, they shouldn't have a hard time running the table, much like they did last season. Yes, there are some tough road games, but a defense as strong as Houston's travels well.
The combination of the returning production, continuity at the quarterback position, and a game-changing defense have me confidently betting the over on the Cougars' win total. I see another 11-win season with a return to the conference championship. They are worth a bet at +225 to win the AAC if you want to go all-in on Houston. The Cougars came up short last year against Cincinnati, but I like their odds because coach Luke Fickell has to replace eight Bearcats who have moved on to the NFL, including QB Desmond Ridder and CB Sauce Gardner. My best bet is to bank on Houston hitting the over on the win total, but I don't think we'll regret having some action on the Cougars to conquer the conference before heading to the Big 12.
*Stats provided by cfbstats.com, Athlon Sports, and teamrankings.com.
