What people think about the Conservative Party
As the Tory leadership contest enters its final stages, what do the public think of the candidates and does the party have a chance at the next election?
After weeks of speculation, the contest to be the next leader of the Conservative Party continues to rumble on.
Former women and equalities minister Kemi Badenoch went into the Tories' annual conference in Birmingham the favourite among members and, despite a few minor gaffes, such as her comments on maternity pay, is expected to leave in the same position.
Her closest rival, one-time immigration minister Robert Jenrick, ended the opening two rounds of voting the top choice among Tory MPs, but he will still need to win round the rank-and-file membership for the final stage of the contest to win. The final members of the quartet are James Cleverly and Tom Tugendhat.
But whatever the final outcome, the latest polling shows the Tories will be in for a fight to ensure whoever is chosen has a chance of one day moving into Downing Street.
What do Britons think of the current Tory party?
While Rishi Sunak's Conservatives might have been consigned to their worst election defeat in parliamentary history – sinking to just 121 seats – four in 10 Britons feel the party still has too much influence.
According to pollsters YouGov, 69% of the public has an unfavourable view of the opposition, compared to just 22% with favourable opinions.
And, concerningly for the party, despite the new government's own battles over winter fuel payments, early prisoner releases and gifts to the prime minister, those figures have barely changed since the July general election.
Voters for Nigel Farage's Reform UK outfit, a target demographic for the Tories, also pose a challenge, with 38% of those surveyed holding a 'somewhat unfavourable' view of the Conservative Party and 32% holding 'very unfavourable' views.
According to YouGov, a majority of "pretty much every key social and political group" has a negative opinion of the Tories, including Leave voters, who were considered "as dependable Conservative voters just a few years ago".
Dishonest, divided and unprofessional were among the terms Brits were mostly likely to use to describe the party, with "only interested in themselves" top, selected by 56% of those asked.
Less than 3% of respondents considered the Tories either trustworthy, likeable or "like normal people".
Despite Boris Johnson’s efforts in the so-called ‘Red Wall’, at the 2019 general election, the Conservatives still struggle to convince lower income voters.
Almost nine in 10 Britons think the party is interested in ‘rich people’ and while seven in 10 said it was interested in ‘business’, compared to less than a fifth who thought it has the concerns of the working class.
Regional divides also continue, with just 22% convinced the party cares about people outside southern England.
The Conservatives also appear to continue to struggle with throwing off perceptions about their attitudes to women and ethnic minorities.
Just a third of those surveyed said the party cared about women or "people with families".
There was also a split over the party’s approach to older people, traditionally one of its core voting blocs, with 42% saying Tories care about older people, rising to 48% for those who said they don’t care.
What do Tory voters think?
Even Conservative voters appear to be struggling with their views of the party in the wake of July's electoral thumping.
According to YouGov, one in six Tory voters have an unfavourable view of the party they voted for just a few months ago.
Asked how they would describe the party, the top answer, picked by 45% of Conservative voters at the last election, was 'divided' - the only example where they mirrored almost exactly the view of the wider British electorate.
Also a concern for the party, barely a third of Tory voters could even manage to say it had 'sensible policies'.
And even worse, just a quarter thought it 'fit to govern', only a quarter considered it 'competent' and just 12% thought their own party 'trustworthy'.
However, despite this, a survey by YouGov also suggests a majority think the party will be able to turn its fortunes around in time for the next election currently due in 2029.
According to the pollster, more than half of members believe the next Tory leader will become prime minister when the country next goes to the ballot box, compared to just 3% who said they ‘definitely will not’ secure the keys to Downing Street.
According to a poll by the influential Conservative Home website carried out shortly before the start of the party's annual conference in Birmingham, Badenoch was the front runner among party members to clinch victory in the on-going leadership contest.
The former women and equalities minister had an 11 percentage point lead over her nearest rival Jenrick, despite the latter topping the opening two rounds of voting among Tory MPs.
But more recent polling by YouGov, following gaffes such as Badenoch’s comments on maternity pay and Jenrick's claims about UK special forces, suggests the gap is narrowing, with Badenoch's head-to-head lead over Jenrick slashed by more than half.
How does the Conservative leadership contest work?
There have already been two round of voting among Tory MPs to whittle an initial pack of six leadership hopefuls down to four, going into the party conference.
The four remaining candidates are due to face their parliamentary colleagues once again later this month, with two more rounds of ballots to leave a two-person shortlist to be put to the wider party membership.
Once voting for the final round commences, currently scheduled for 31 October, a winner is expected to be declared on 2 November.
However, if one of the final two candidates drops out before the decision can be put to rank-and-file members, as happened in the contest between Andrea Leadsom and Theresa May in 2016, the remaining contender will be declared the victor by default.
