Will new COVID XEC variant spark a winter surge?

Here's what you need to know about the new XEC variant, which could soon become the dominant form of COVID-19.

Abstract XEC variant of coronavirus  - 3d rendered image illustration for virus pandemic concepts.
It is combination of KS.1.1 and KP.3.3 stamp variations. Covid-19 hologram digital view scene.
Disease X new pandemic pathogen virus -  Virus, pathogen, bacteria, biotechnology, bacterium, biolaboratory, new X disease, brain illness concept. Microscopic SEM (TEM) hologram view. Medical research technology.
The XEC Covid strain (Getty Images)

A new COVID strain, which scientists have said could become the new dominant type, has been reported across the world.

XEC is spreading through Central Europe, where it is making up more than 10% of COVID-19 infections, but has also been found in the UK, North America, Australia and parts of South America and Asia.

The strain was first identified in June this year in Germany and has "slowly been going up in frequency since then", says Francois Balloux, Professor of Computational Systems Biology and Director and the UCL Genetics Institute.

He says XEC has the potential to become the dominant subvariant over winter, but that doesn't necessarily mean another surge of COVID is on the way - or that we should be worried.

Here, Prof Balloux sets out what you need to know about the new XEC strain.

XEC is likely to be a combination of the subvariants KP.3.3 and KS.1.1, which are two among many sub-lineages descended from the globally dominant BA.2.86 “Pirola” variant that emerged about a year ago.

While XEC has a "slight transmission advantage" over other sub-variants in circulation, Prof Balloux says, protection from vaccines and previous COVID infections still protect against severe symptoms.

COVID XEC has been detected in at least 29 countries and 24 US states, according to data compiled by Outbreak.info, a website which aggregates data across scientific sources to track the development of COVID variants.

"XEC is most common in Central Europe at this stage where it represents over 10% of all COVID infections. It remains less common in other parts of the world but seems to be going up in frequency globally," Prof Balloux says.

https://outbreak.info/situation-reports?xmin=2024-03-17&xmax=2024-09-17&pango=XEC
Where the XEC variant has been detected so far. (Outbreak.info)

“It is anticipated that SARS-CoV-2 case numbers will again increase during the coming winter," says Prof Balloux.

This shouldn't be too surprising. Although COVID-19 has the potential to surge at any time of year, it is typically more likely to do so in the winter, partly due to more people socialising indoors.

However, Prof Balloux says that "at the moment, case numbers are flatlining or going down in most places".

"The XEC subvariant is not fuelling a surge, and is not anticipated to cause the next wave, but when cases will go up, it may well represent a sizeable proportion of SARS-CoV-2 infections," he adds.

Prof Balloux says it is "possible that XEC will become the dominant subvariant over the winter," pointing out that similar shifts have been seen with other strains becoming more prevalent during the season.

"XEC represents a fairly minor evolution relative to the SARS-CoV-2 diversity currently in circulation, and is not a highly derived novel variant such as those that were granted Greek letters (Alpha – Omicron), or even Omicron BA.2.86 (“Pirola”)," he adds.

The UK Health Security Agency has urged the most vulnerable to be careful of their increased risk, saying in a X post: "As we head into the colder months, remember that COVID-19 and flu can be especially dangerous for those at higher risk of severe illness."

“There is no evidence that XEC symptoms may differ from those caused by any other SARS-CoV-2 lineage currently in circulation. It is not anticipated that XEC will cause different symptoms," Prof Balloux says.

The NHS says typical symptoms of COVID are very similar to those of other illnesses, such as colds and flu.

They can include:

  • A high temperature or shivering (chills) – a high temperature means you feel hot to touch on your chest or back

  • A new, continuous cough (coughing a lot for more than an hour, or three or more coughing episodes in 24 hours)

  • A loss or change to your sense of smell or taste

  • Shortness of breath

  • Feeling tired or exhausted

  • An aching body

  • A headache

  • A sore throat

  • A blocked or runny nose

  • Loss of appetite

  • Diarrhoea

  • Feeling sick or being sick

COVID vaccines from the NHS are only available for "people at increased risk" from the virus, with the rollout of new jabs starting on 3 October.

Eligible groups include people who are over 65; care home residents; frontline health and social care workers; and people in clinical risk groups, including pregnant women.

The UK's winter vaccine programme opened on Thursday and appointments can be booked on the NHS website here. Alternatively, people can find a walk-in vaccination site here.

People who are not in the eligible groups listed above can still buy COVID vaccines privately.

Boots is one high street retailer which provides a private vaccination service, with the 15-minute in-store appointments costing £98.95.