Crack Appears in Polish Nativist President’s Re-Election Bid
(Bloomberg) -- Polish President Andrzej Duda’s re-election is not a done deal anymore.
Two months before the vote, Duda surprisingly finds himself losing his lead over rivals, opinion polls showed this week. A potential ouster would be a heavy blow for the ruling nativists, who have battled European Union allies on issues ranging from adherence to the rule of law to carbon emissions.
Making things worse for the incumbent, slowing economic growth and a jump in inflation is eroding the feel-good factor that helped the Law & Justice party win five consecutive nationwide elections since 2015. A survey on Saturday showed support for Duda down 6 percentage points to 40%, while other polls showed he’s not a shoo-in to win the runoff.
Law & Justice is by far the most popular party in Poland, but it’s not backed by a majority of voters and that’s what Duda needs to win a probable run-off against his more centrist opponents, according to Olgierd Annusewicz, a political scientist at Warsaw University.
“As of today, nobody has the presidential victory in their pocket,” Annusewicz said. “Duda has been chiefly preaching to his own electorate and now he might find it hard to broaden his fan base.”
Too Close to Call
The latest survey, for weekly wPolityce, had Duda’s closest competitor, Malgorzata Kidawa-Blonska at 26%, up one point. A poll published by Polska The Times newspaper earlier this week also showed Duda and Kidawa-Blonska heading into a run-off, set for May 24.
In the run-off scenario, the incumbent only has a 0.6 point lead, within the poll’s margin of error. Even when facing less popular candidates, such as independent Szymon Holownia or Peasant Party leader Wladyslaw Kosiniak-Kamysz, his success isn’t a done deal, according the poll of 8,000 adults. Most surveys, based on smaller samples, indicate a wider victory for Duda.
If the ruling party loses an allied president, it would have difficulty passing legislation, which could potentially lead to a snap general election, Deputy Prime Minister Jacek Sasin said last week.
That’s too close for comfort and means that Poland is heading for a “brutal” election battle, Duda’s campaign spokesman Adam Bielan said. Even some pro-government media have voiced concern over the incumbent’s strategy so far.
Grzegorz Maliszewski, the chief economist at Bank Millennium SA in Warsaw, said declining consumer confidence and the highest inflation since 2011 make the campaign harder for the incumbent.
Still, the financial situation of Polish households remains “relatively good” as unemployment lingers near record low and state handouts continue to pad incomes, he said.
Law & Justice has so far refrained from making any new welfare promises during Duda’s campaign, having pushed budget spending increases to legal limits with earlier announced welfare payments.
Yet the ruling party may still do that, according to Annusewicz.
“Law & Justice has a unique ability to mobilize its electorate and they haven’t revealed all their cards yet,” he said.
To contact the reporters on this story: Dorota Bartyzel in Warsaw at dbartyzel@bloomberg.net;Marek Strzelecki in Warsaw at mstrzelecki1@bloomberg.net
To contact the editors responsible for this story: Andrea Dudik at adudik@bloomberg.net, ;Wojciech Moskwa at wmoskwa@bloomberg.net, Todd White
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