Ecuador Poll Shows Noboa’s Chances for First Round Win Fading
(Bloomberg) -- Ecuador President Daniel Noboa’s chances for a first-round victory in February’s presidential vote appear to be fading due to a bump in support for a third candidate, according to a new poll.
Most Read from Bloomberg
Billionaire Developer Caruso Slams LA Leadership Over Wildfires
How Sanctuary Cities Are Preparing for Another Showdown With Trump
Hoboken PATH Station Will Close for Almost a Month on Jan. 30
Data in pollster Comunicaliza’s most recent poll imply a rematch between the president and socialist candidate Luisa Gonzalez in an April run-off. They last faced one another in the October 2023 out-of-cycle election won by Noboa for an interim, 18-month term.
“With 89% of voters decided, a runoff looks likely though in Ecuador, anything can happen,” Comunicaliza CEO Alvaro Marchante said in a telephone interview. He polled 2,782 voting-age Ecuadorians in the Jan. 20-22 survey that had a margin of error of +/-1.86% and 95% confidence level.
While Noboa’s voting intent for the Feb. 9 general elections edged 0.8 percentage point higher to 36.9% in Comunicaliza’s online poll, gains by anti-graft activist Andrea Gonzalez — no relation to Luisa — after a strong performance in Sunday’s presidential debate likely put a first-round win by Noboa out of reach.
The impact is mostly statistical as Noboa widened his lead over Luisa Gonzalez, who dropped 0.6 point to 32.4%. Andrea Gonzalez meanwhile rose to 4.1%, putting her at a distant third. The poll showed Noboa in the lead for the runoff, with 40.4% compared with Luisa Gonzalez’s 35.6%, 13.3% planning to submit a voided or blank ballot, and 10.8% undecided.
Andrea Gonzalez’s bump however changed the outlook for first-round valid votes as under Ecuadorian electoral law, blank or spoiled ballots aren’t counted. Assuming a proportional distribution of undecided votes, Noboa’s share of valid votes in the poll dropped to 45.7% from 47.3% in Comunicaliza’s previous poll taken Jan. 8-11.
Under Ecuador’s election rules, a candidate needs more than 50% of the valid vote, or at least 40% with a 10-point lead over the runner up. No polls may be published later than Jan. 29.
Most Read from Bloomberg Businessweek
The CDC Won’t Give the Public a Full Picture of Fertility Treatment Risks
How Kendrick Lamar Turned Beef With Drake Into Music Superstardom
Walgreens Replaced Fridge Doors With Smart Screens. It’s Now a $200 Million Fiasco
©2025 Bloomberg L.P.