Ecuador Poll Shows Noboa’s Chances for First Round Win Fading

(Bloomberg) -- Ecuador President Daniel Noboa’s chances for a first-round victory in February’s presidential vote appear to be fading due to a bump in support for a third candidate, according to a new poll.

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Data in pollster Comunicaliza’s most recent poll imply a rematch between the president and socialist candidate Luisa Gonzalez in an April run-off. They last faced one another in the October 2023 out-of-cycle election won by Noboa for an interim, 18-month term.

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“With 89% of voters decided, a runoff looks likely though in Ecuador, anything can happen,” Comunicaliza CEO Alvaro Marchante said in a telephone interview. He polled 2,782 voting-age Ecuadorians in the Jan. 20-22 survey that had a margin of error of +/-1.86% and 95% confidence level.

While Noboa’s voting intent for the Feb. 9 general elections edged 0.8 percentage point higher to 36.9% in Comunicaliza’s online poll, gains by anti-graft activist Andrea Gonzalez — no relation to Luisa — after a strong performance in Sunday’s presidential debate likely put a first-round win by Noboa out of reach.

The impact is mostly statistical as Noboa widened his lead over Luisa Gonzalez, who dropped 0.6 point to 32.4%. Andrea Gonzalez meanwhile rose to 4.1%, putting her at a distant third. The poll showed Noboa in the lead for the runoff, with 40.4% compared with Luisa Gonzalez’s 35.6%, 13.3% planning to submit a voided or blank ballot, and 10.8% undecided.

Andrea Gonzalez’s bump however changed the outlook for first-round valid votes as under Ecuadorian electoral law, blank or spoiled ballots aren’t counted. Assuming a proportional distribution of undecided votes, Noboa’s share of valid votes in the poll dropped to 45.7% from 47.3% in Comunicaliza’s previous poll taken Jan. 8-11.

Under Ecuador’s election rules, a candidate needs more than 50% of the valid vote, or at least 40% with a 10-point lead over the runner up. No polls may be published later than Jan. 29.

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