Erdogan Seeks Trump’s Support to Shape Middle East How He Wants
(Bloomberg) -- With Donald Trump threatening to upend American foreign policy again, one old acquaintance is aiming to benefit from a new era of American dealmaking in the Middle East.
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Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan wants to capitalize on the demise of the Assad regime in neighboring Syria and the ceasefire in Gaza. Should the dominos fall the right way, there could be hundreds of billions of dollars of rebuilding contracts and new trade as well as geopolitical influence.
But Turkey’s opposition to US-backed Kurdish forces is testing plans to stabilize the region, according to Turkish officials and advisers familiar with the matter. Erdogan wants the groups to be disbanded, yet recent talks with the Biden administration yielded no result. A Turkish delegation is expected to visit Washington for discussions soon, the people said.
The US has long supported the Kurds in the battle against Islamic State. Washington refused to sell them out to Turkey because it viewed them as critical to keeping extremist militants from taking advantage of the chaos in Syria.
Turkey has been fighting separatist Kurdish militants for decades and is now seeing an opportunity to neutralize the threat. It views the Kurdish fighters in Syria as terrorists and allied to the Kurdistan Workers’ Party, known as the PKK.
There are also commercial interests, according to people close to the Turkish government. As hundreds of Turkish trucks carry food, medicine and construction material across the border on a daily basis, Erdogan is hoping to assume a bigger role in Syria’s reconstruction.
With the need to build entire cities, hospitals, schools and dilapidated infrastructure, Turkish authorities are holding back-to-back meetings to coordinate its reconstruction effort, according to people in Ankara and Istanbul familiar with the matter.
Shares in Turkish producers of cement and steel have soared since Bashar Al-Assad was ousted, while Turkish Airlines flights to Damascus resumed on Thursday after a 13-year hiatus.
“Turkey is eying to capture the lion’s share in Syria’s reconstruction,” said Oytun Orhan, a Syria specialist at the Center for Middle Eastern Studies in Ankara. “When the Syrian opposition captured Damascus, Turkey won the opportunity to monetize its years of direct or indirect support for them.”
Turkey reckons its aspirations to have a bigger role in the future of Syria have tacit approval from both the US and Israel on condition that it does not target Syrian Kurdish forces and also softens its criticism over Israel’s policies in Gaza and the West Bank, the Turkish officials and advisers said. They spoke on condition of anonymity.
During talks with US officials in Ankara this month, Turkey insisted that US-backed Kurdish YPG forces under the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces, or SDF, should be disbanded, according to the people.
Another demand was that PKK members under the SDF leave Syria amid growing expectations inside the Turkish government that the group’s imprisoned chief, Abdullah Ocalan, will soon urge his fighters to lay down arms.
“If the YPG terrorist organization, which usurped Syria’s natural resources, does not dissolve itself and lay down its arms, it will not be able to escape the upcoming bitter end,” Erdogan told the parliament in Ankara earlier this month.
Turkey finances and advises the Syrian National Army, or SNA, which helped topple Assad and has been trying to capture more territory from Kurdish forces in the north of the country.
The US has so far opposed Turkish demands to disband the SDF and YPG fighters because it sees the Kurds as a critical ally in keeping the lid on Islamic State in Syria, according to people familiar with Turkey’s thinking. The State Department did not respond to a request for comment.
There are also about 2,000 American troops in Syria, more than twice the number previously thought, according to the Department of Defense.
Some senators threatened sanctions against Turkey last month unless the SNA stopped its campaign. But the mood in Washington has changed. Trump, who has called Erdogan both a “friend” and a “devil,” praised Turkey’s president and said the country will be a key player shaping Syria’s future.
Erdogan, meanwhile, is hoping to convince Trump that NATO’s second-largest army is best positioned to prevent a resurgence of Islamic State. Turkey also wants Kurdish forces to return control of oil fields, which could be a critical source revenue to rebuild Syria, to the government in Damascus. Before the civil war erupted in 2011, Syria was pumping almost 400,000 barrels a day, more than some OPEC members do today.
“Turkey has the capacity to speedily repair Syria’s airports, power grid and telecommunication network while rebuilding housing units and infrastructure,” said Murat Yesiltas, security policy director of the Ankara-based SETA think tank, which advises Erdogan’s government. “It can even rehabilitate Syria’s natural gas and oil fields in the future.”
There’s much at stake for Erdogan personally. After winning re-election in 2023, he’s seeking to extend his rule and cement his legacy by reviving a plan to make peace with the Kurdish minority. That could polish his political image after the economy entered into recession as the country tries to bring down one of the highest inflation rates in the world.
On offer for the Kurds is money. Turkish officials also point to strong trade ties with the Iraqi Kurdish administration as an example for what a friendly relationship could bring for Kurds in Syria in the future. Turkish companies have built hospitals, airports and shopping malls and luxury hotels in Iraq.
To increase its economic and political clout over Syria, Turkey has already offered de-facto leader Ahmed Al-Sharaa help to rebuild damaged infrastructure as well as military aid and the support of Turkey-backed Syrian rebels.
Turkey has also appealed to Gulf countries to help finance projects which are estimated to cost hundreds of billions of dollars, according to the people familiar with the discussions. In the northern city of Aleppo, half of which is in ruins, some Turkish builders are already evaluating construction projects, the people said, adding that the country also needs help to repair its power grid and to build new dams.
Then there’s trade. Turkey is expected to use Syria again as its main conduit for exports by road to the Gulf once security improves, rather than the more expensive shipping route via Egypt.
Ankara is waiting to see whether the ceasefire in Gaza holds before deciding whether to resume ties with Israel, the people familiar with the situation said. Turkey halted all trade with Israel in May 2024 in protest over its military drive against Gaza.
“The next phase of the war still continues in Syria, and it is necessary to see what our own government will plan regarding developments,” said Erdal Eren, head of the Turkish Contractors Association. “We are waiting to take part in the repair and reconstruction of countries destroyed by others and devastated by others.”
--With assistance from Iain Marlow and Ugur Yilmaz.
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