Europe, Zelenskiy Discuss Ukraine Support in Trump Era
(Bloomberg) -- Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said he’ll reinforce his push for security guarantees at a meeting with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte and several European leaders in Brussels.
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Rutte gathered leaders from Germany, Italy, Denmark, the Netherlands and Poland at his residence on Wednesday evening to discuss how to support Kyiv ahead of Donald Trump’s return to the White House.
High on the agenda with the Ukrainian president will be how to bolster the country’s air defenses and to “provide whatever we can” including other weapons systems, Rutte told reporters ahead of the meeting.
The leaders may also be pushed on their willingness to take part in a potential postwar peacekeeping force, according to people familiar with the matter.
Trump has pledged to put a swift end to the war, but he hasn’t provided details of how he intends to do that. The president-elect and his national security nominees have hinted that Ukraine may have to leave swathes of territory in limbo in exchange for security guarantees that will likely fall short of NATO membership. That would leave Europe having to carry much of the burden moving forward.
As European capitals come to terms with the possibility that negotiations are thrust upon Zelenskiy once Trump enters office, the leaders’ focus is on ensuring that Kyiv enters any talks from a position of strength and on filling gaps that may emerge if the US scales back its support, said the people, who spoke on condition of anonymity.
Along with Zelenskiy, Rutte’s meeting will be attended by Germany’s Olaf Scholz, Italy’s Giorgia Meloni and Poland’s Andrzej Duda, as well as European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. Separately, Zelenskiy was scheduled to meet with Czech Prime Minister Petr Fiala.
On Wednesday, von der Leyen said the European Union needs to keep up its political support for Ukraine, including on Kyiv’s application for membership in the bloc.
“They have achieved tremendous progress towards membership of our union,” she told the European Parliament. “And if they keep up these efforts, we should be ready to open the negotiations” on a part of the process in early 2025.
The UK appears to have also shifted its position in recent weeks, with Prime Minister Keir Starmer for the first time conceding that the conflict will likely end with a negotiated settlement. Foreign Secretary David Lammy is expected to join Wednesday’s meeting in his place.
Britain must help “put Ukraine in the strongest possible position for negotiations” with Russia to end the conflict “so they can secure a just and lasting peace on their terms that guarantees their security, independence and right to choose their own future,” Starmer said earlier this month.
EU leaders plan to use the joint conclusions from a leaders’ summit on Thursday to call for “the urgent stepping up of efforts, in particular on the delivery of air defense systems, ammunition and missiles, as well as on the provision of necessary training and equipment for Ukrainian brigades,” according to the most recent draft, seen by Bloomberg.
That is no easy task. Russian forces continue to gradually advance on the battlefield and its missiles and drones continue to rain on Ukraine’s critical infrastructure and cities. While Europe has provided the most financial support to Kyiv, the US has been its most significant military backer. And Europe lacks the resources to make up for any major reduction in support that may occur under Trump, particularly in the near term.
Rutte recently rammed the point home, warning that Europe is still not doing enough to ramp up its defenses. NATO may next year push for more ambitious targets on producing weaponry that would likely alliance members pushing their defense spending up to 3% of GDP on defense, from the current 2% target, Bloomberg previously reported.
Another area of focus for allies moving forward will be the continued supply of artillery ammunition. Kyiv has been able to recently flatten Russia’s advantage to about 1.5 shells for every round Ukraine lobs back, from many times that earlier in the war. But those efforts will need to be sustained, the people said.
One challenge, some of the people said, is that Scholz won’t be in a position to make many commitments that stretch beyond Germany’s election in February, while France’s Emmanuel Macron is weakened both politically and economically.
As the leader of the EU’s third largest economy, a lot of attention will be on Meloni and her positions in Rutte’s meeting, the people said. The discussions will be a prelude to a broader discussion taking place among all EU member states at Thursday’s summit.
--With assistance from Katharina Rosskopf, Jorge Valero and Patrick Donahue.
(Corrects to clarify that Zelenskiy met with Czech leader separately on Thursday.)
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