European Traders Look to Hedge Tariff Risk as the US Votes
(Bloomberg) -- Europe’s traders are seeking to get ahead of the fallout from a pivotal US election by betting against the euro and hedging risks with the Swiss franc and German bonds.
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For Europe, Donald Trump’s proposals to raise tariffs are key: they would hurt sectors with high exposure to the US, sending the common currency much lower against the dollar. Plans by both presidential candidates to boost spending would also complicate bets on the region’s interest rates.
Predictions show it will be a very tight race. With Vice President Kamala Harris’s numbers improving in the final polls, markets have been pulling back from bets on a Trump win — an outcome that’s seen favoring a stronger dollar and weaker Treasuries — and moving to more balanced positioning. That sets up a knee-jerk reaction to the result either way.
In the stock market, investors are moving out of stocks geared to benefit from a Democrat victory to those that are seen as benefiting more from a Republican administration. They include beneficiaries of US reshoring and reflation, while a Trump win could see the region’s automakers being hit hard.
Here’s a look at what markets are signaling heading into today’s vote and what that says about the outlook for currencies and bonds.
Euro Pain
The cost of hedging the euro overnight has surged to the highest in more than four years. The currency could be vulnerable to a broad greenback rally given its relative outperformance last month in the spot market, and traders are still looking for further gains in the dollar after its near 3% surge last month.
Wagers on a strong US currency have been one of the most popular ways to position on a Trump victory, with options that pay out in case of a stronger dollar against the euro, the pound and Norway’s krone in high demand, based on October data from the Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation. But the euro has proved to be one of the most popular expressions, with traders holding the largest short position in four years as of Oct. 29.
Some are even betting the euro falls as far as parity — a position that could gain further traction if Trump wins and institutes tariffs on European goods. Roughly €4.6 billion ($5 billion) was wagered last month on the euro falling to $1 or below by July next year, up from €366 million in September. Around €8.6 billion is riding on the common currency hitting $1.05 by April. That would be a slide of about 4% from $1.0890 on Tuesday.
Risk-reversal options — a gauge of how much it costs to buy rather than sell a currency — show traders are staying bullish on the dollar against the pound, with wagers on a fall in sterling over the next month at the highest since May 2023. That would further dent a rally this year that has made the British currency one of the world’s top performers.
The largest trades in recent weeks include a £190 million ($247 million) wager on the pound slipping to $1.28 by mid-November, down from near $1.30 now, and a further £146 million bet on the currency hitting that level by Jan. 21, a day after inauguration. Around 54% of vanilla options exposure is positioned for a slide in the pound.
However, options bets are bullish on the Swiss franc, albeit at significantly lower levels compared to August, since the Swiss currency is benefiting from its own role as a haven from risks.
Meanwhile Scandinavia’s currencies could benefit the most on a Harris win or a split Congress, as traders aggressively sold both the Norwegian and Swedish currencies in October and options bets have remained bearish since then.
Bond Markets
European bonds are proving more attractive relative to Treasuries given the prospect of greater fiscal spending in the US whoever wins the vote. That sent the extra yield investors demand to hold 10-year Treasuries over German bunds up to 200 basis points last week, the highest since May. While some of that premium has faded after Treasuries rallied Monday, the post-election landscape could drive it higher to a five-year high above 220 basis points.
However, if Trump wins the election and withdraws funding for Ukraine’s war with Russia, the pressure on the euro area to finance that support may require the bloc to issue more debt, in turn lifting borrowing costs and narrowing the gap to US counterparts.
Outstanding positions in German 10-year bund futures have been broadly steady for a month, indicating little appetite to increase insurance protection against the election result. This suggests the potential for fewer wild price swings following the outcome if hedges are unwound.
Interest-Rate Bets
The European Central Bank is seen cutting rates at a faster pace than the Federal Reserve, due to better US growth prospects and the potential for larger government spending. Additionally, recent economic data has been stronger in the US, whereas the euro area’s largest economy Germany only managed to avoid a recession in the last quarter.
One trader is aiming for a sixfold return on an options futures bet that the ECB will quicken its pace even more to prop up the economy.
While money markets see both central banks cutting by around 125 basis points over the next year, policymakers are more likely to stay on the present course under a Harris win, whereas Trump’s tariff plans could spur markets to shift to bet on fewer Fed cuts.
Stocks Pivot
Investors are moving out of stocks geared toward Democrat policies. A UBS Group AG basket of European companies seen benefiting from the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), and others such as renewables stocks and firms that fare best when trade relations are smooth, dropped about 10% last month.
In contrast, stocks that UBS selected as beneficiaries of a Republican administration are on the up. They include beneficiaries of US re-shoring and reflation, a rollback of the IRA, and reduced US involvement in EU defense and trade tensions.
European automakers could end up being hit. Trump has pledged tax breaks for Americans buying cars, but only those made in the US. He favors steep levies on autos from Mexico and China, for instance, touting duties as high as 1,000%.
The renewables sector could also come under pressure if Trump were to pause new project approvals or to make meaningful changes to the IRA. Meanwhile, European defense firms are seen as likely to benefit if Trump wins and ratchets up the pressure on NATO members to spend more on defense.
--With assistance from Kit Rees and Michael Msika.
(Adds section on stocks.)
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