Europe Pushes Trump to Play a Part in Guarantees for Ukraine
(Bloomberg) -- European officials are seeking commitments from the new US administration of President Donald Trump to take part in security guarantees for Ukraine as diplomatic pressure to end the Russian invasion mounts.
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The allies broadly agree with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy that the US will have to contribute troops to any future peacekeeping forces in the country to make such effort credible, according to people familiar with the matter who spoke under condition of anonymity.
Kyiv’s European allies said the US may be on board with the idea, despite Trump’s initial reticence. They stressed, however, that it’s still too early to discuss in detail what future peacekeeping forces in Ukraine would look like, the people said.
The latest push shows Europeans are trying to shape the thinking of the new administration as Trump prepares to engage with Russian President Vladimir Putin. The US president has threatened to dial up the pressure on the Russian economy unless Putin agrees to end the fighting, although the Russian leader has given no indication he’s ready to make any meaningful concessions.
If European allies were forced to send troops on their own, that could undermine the credibility of the guarantee and create a rift in NATO as it would spell the de-facto end of transatlantic cooperation within the alliance, a senior European government official said.
Trump’s skepticism toward supporting Ukraine may have softened. His team has shown willingness for the US to focus on giving security guarantees to Ukraine, which they privately acknowledge as inevitable, according to a senior western diplomat who has interacted with the president’s team on the matter.
However, in exchange for those commitments Trump may expect Europe to take a bigger share of the burden in enforcing any potential deal. Europeans understand that the US expects them to provide the bulk of the troops, according to the same diplomat, with Trump considering the war in Ukraine a European affair.
The president’s team has also signaled that the new US administration doesn’t intend to engage directly in Ukrainian reconstruction, something they have suggested would be taken over by the private sector, another senior diplomat said, stressing that discussions were still ongoing.
Zelenskiy is attempting to lock in support from Trump as part of the diplomatic push to end the war, which is approaching its fourth year. Ukraine’s president told Bloomberg News on Wednesday that any effective peacekeeping force must include US troops, as the military backing of Europe alone won’t be sufficient to deter Putin.
Credibility Problem
Ukraine’s European allies have become cautiously optimistic in recent weeks that Trump won’t force Kyiv into premature peace negotiations with Russia. Trump threatened Moscow with financial penalties this week if Putin refuses to stop fighting soon.
Trump’s special envoy for Ukraine and Russia, Keith Kellogg, is expected to visit Kyiv in the coming weeks. He has said he’d like a solution to be found in the first 100 days of the administration, after Trump rowed back his pledge to broker a deal to end the conflict in 24 hours.
But given Trump’s record of changing policy on the fly, much remains uncertain. That has left European allies concerned about the scale of any future US military commitment to back up those guarantees — or whether there’ll be any at all.
Trump indicated on Thursday he’s seeking to partner with China to try to reach a settlement in Ukraine. National Security Council spokesman Brian Hughes said the president “has made clear our NATO allies need to step up their defense spending obligations and share of the burden with the largest land war since World War II on their doorstep.”
Several European leaders, including French President Emmanuel Macron, have explored the idea of sending European troops to shore up Ukraine once a ceasefire is reached. The Europeans are holding discussions in order to propose concrete solutions to the US, according to a person familiar with the matter.
One senior French official expressed some skepticism, though. The Europeans understood, that person said, they wouldn’t be able to count on major US participation but would have to prepare for Washington only playing a role in certain capabilities, without putting people on the ground.
That may complicate the matter.
“To avoid a resumption of the war, you need strong enough guarantees,” said NATO’s senior official in Ukraine, Patrick Turner. “NATO membership is a yardstick for what an effective guarantee would look like,” he told Bloomberg News in an interview in Kyiv.
Claudia Major of the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, a think-tank in Berlin, said “European guarantees will have a credibility problem.” She estimates that any commitment would require as many as 150,000 military personnel.
That’s not feasible without a US contribution, she said, especially considering that Europe lacks other strategic elements such as sufficient air and missile defense.
“There are only two real guarantees for a country: NATO or nukes,” Major said. “Anything short of that is just security support.”
--With assistance from Arne Delfs, Andra Timu, Samy Adghirni, Ania Nussbaum and Stephanie Lai.
(Updates with comments from National Security Council spokesman in 13th paragraph, analyst starting in 18th.)
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