The following three fantasy pitchers have a much better expected ERA than current ERA this season and should improve greatly moving forward.
Alex Cobb, San Francisco Giants: xERA (2.07) vs. ERA (5.74)
Cobb has the biggest discrepancy between his ERA and expected ERA among all starters this season.
The Giants’ league-worst defense deserves blame, but SF has a lot of moving parts and was among the best defensive teams last season, so it’s safe to expect Cobb’s MLB-high .402 BABIP to regress (his career mark is .295). Cobb could return from the IL as soon as this weekend, and he’s somehow available in nearly 70 percent of Yahoo leagues. Cobb ranks top-15 among starters in CSW this season.
Hunter Greene, Cincinnati Reds: xERA (3.63) vs. ERA (5.10)
Greene has lowered his ERA more than a full run over his last two starts, and he’s becoming less available in most fantasy leagues as a result (56% rostered). The rookie sports a 2.87 ERA and a 0.70 WHIP with a 23:2 K:BB ratio over three starts in June. The Reds have played better after their dreadful start, and their defense has been at least league average.
Expect Greene’s ERA to continue to decrease over the rest of the season, as he’s a must-add in any fantasy league in which he’s still available. Teammate Tyler Mahle also had one of the biggest xERA/ERA discrepancies before he tossed a gem Tuesday night.
Jon Gray, Texas Rangers: xERA (3.79) vs. ERA (4.85)
During his first season away from Coors Field, Gray has somehow started just two of 10 games at home (where he’s recorded 20 Ks over 12.2 innings) with the Rangers. Even with the weird scheduling quirk, Gray has an even lower FIP (3.64) than xERA and looks poised for a strong second half to 2022 while ranking top-25 among starters in CSW. Gray remains available in more than 70% of Yahoo leagues, and he gets MLB’s worst offense (Detroit) his next time out.