France’s National Rally Confirms Lead in Snap Election Polls

(Bloomberg) -- France’s National Rally consolidated its lead in opinion polls taken a little over a week before the country’s snap election, with one projection showing the far-right party may win an absolute majority in the new parliament.

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The party, led by 28-year-old Jordan Bardella, had support of 33% of likely voters, according to a poll published Friday by Odoxa. National Rally was ahead of the 28% score for the left-wing alliance New Popular Front, and 19% for President Emmanuel Macron’s movement.

In another poll published Saturday by Opinionway and Vae Solis, the far-right party gained two percentage points versus June 14, to 35%, while the New Popular Front gained three points to 28% and Macron’s movement gained two points to 22%.

A poll by Ipsos published later Saturday showed that support for the National Rally and its allies was at 35.5%, ahead of the 29.5% and the 19.5% of the New Popular Front and Macron’s movement.

Macron dissolved the National Assembly and called a snap legislative vote after his group was trounced in this month’s European Parliament elections. The first round of voting is scheduled for June 30 and the second for July 7.

Forecasting the number of seats each party could eventually get is complicated. France’s electoral process relies on a two-round system, which in most cases sees the two first-round front-runners go head-to-head in the second round of voting.

In some cases, though, three candidates can qualify for a runoff. The current dynamic may translate into 120 to 170 such matchups against just eight during the 2022 election, Odoxa projections show.

There are 577 parliamentary seats up for grabs, with 289 needed for an absolute majority.

The National Rally and affiliated candidates could win 250 to 300 seats in the next parliament against 89 now, according to the Odoxa poll. The New Popular Front could have between 160 and 210 lawmakers, while Macron’s movement could get 70 to 120 seats, down from 250.

Odoxa, Opinionway and Ipsos interviewed 2,006, 1,009 and 2,000 people online, respectively, between June 19 and June 20.

(Updates with Ipsos poll figures in fourth paragraph)

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