German Chancellor Rebuffs Demands for Confidence Vote Next Week
(Bloomberg) -- German Chancellor Olaf Scholz rejected the conservative opposition’s demand that he should hold a confidence vote by early next week to pave the way for an election as soon as mid-January.
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Scholz brought a premature end to his alliance with the Greens and fiscally conservative Free Democrats late Wednesday when he sacked FDP Finance Minister Christian Lindner, depriving his three-party ruling coalition of a majority in the lower house of parliament.
The Social Democrat chancellor is trying to stave off an election until March to give his beleaguered party longer to recover. He met Thursday with Friedrich Merz and told the leader of the CDU/CSU alliance that he intends to stick to his timetable, according to people familiar with their exchange, who asked not to be identified discussing confidential talks.
Scholz’s plan is to trigger a national ballot in March by deliberately losing a Jan. 15 confidence vote and asking the president to dissolve parliament.
It’s a highly unusual move and represents a major risk for the 66-year-old. The last time his SPD party moved to bring an election forward, in 2005, it led to Angela Merkel’s victory and her 16-year grip on power.
“I would like to admit that I didn’t make it easy for myself,” Scholz told employees of Deutsche Telekom during a works council meeting in Berlin. “I think the decision is the right one,” he added. “The government is doing its job and the citizens can decide how we go forward.”
Scholz’s announcement that he was sacking Lindner came as a shock even though tensions over economic and finance policy had been building in the ruling alliance for weeks.
In contrast to recent instability-induced slumps in France and the UK, the benchmark DAX Index jumped by 2% on Thursday. That suggests market sentiment favors a change, given that German companies are seen as having suffered under the current coalition.
Merz’s center-right alliance is leading in opinion polls with more than 30% of the vote and is in prime position to win back the chancellery after it lost to Scholz’s SPD party three years ago.
Backing for the SPD is at about 16% in third place, behind the far-right Alternative for Germany in second with around 17%. The Greens are at about 11% in fourth, while a new far-left party — the Alliance Sahra Wagenknecht — is fifth with roughly 8%.
The FDP is polling as low as 3%, down from 11.5% in the 2021 election, putting it in danger of missing the 5% threshold for getting into parliament.
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Scholz also wants to delay a confidence vote until January to give him time to pass bills on reducing the tax burden on workers and on measures to help German manufacturers.
On top of that, the 2025 federal budget, which is currently going through parliament, needs lawmaker approval by the end of the year.
Scholz’s economic adviser Joerg Kukies, who replaced Lindner as finance minister and was sworn in Thursday by President Frank-Walter Steinmeier, will oversee that process.
Kukies served as one of Scholz’s deputies when the chancellor was finance minister under Angela Merkel and is a former co-head of Goldman Sachs Germany.
Transport Minister Volker Wissing made a surprise announcement that he was leaving the FDP and would stay on in the cabinet. He also took over the justice portfolio from Marco Buschmann, his former party colleague.
In an awkward ceremony at Steinmeier’s official residence, Lindner, Buschmann and outgoing Education Minister Bettina Stark-Watzinger were also present to receive their letters of dismissal as Scholz looked on.
German chancellors don’t have the power to call an early election, which lies with the federal president, but they can try to trigger one by deliberately losing a confidence vote.
Once Scholz fails to garner a majority, he can ask Steinmeier, a former Social Democrat vice chancellor, to step in and dissolve parliament. The election would then have to be held within 60 days.
According to the constitution, the opposition can only succeed with a vote of no-confidence if it elects a new chancellor at the same time. So Merz would need enough votes for a majority in the lower house of parliament which he is currently lacking.
However, if Scholz hopes to get approval for any legislation while he remains in office he will almost certainly need the backing of CDU/CSU lawmakers in the Bundestag.
Steinmeier said Thursday that he’s prepared to consider dissolving the Bundestag if asked and highlighted that Germany “needs stable majorities and a government capable of taking action.”
“Many people in our country are worried about the uncertain political situation in our own country, in Europe, in the world, after the elections in the USA,” he told reporters. “This is not the time for tactics and skirmishes. It is a time for reason and responsibility.”
A flash poll for public broadcaster ARD published Wednesday showed that a majority wants an early election, with 53% in favor and 40% against.
Only 14% of those surveyed said they’re satisfied with the government’s performance, with 85% saying they’re unhappy with Scholz and his cabinet.
--With assistance from Kamil Kowalcze and Blaise Robinson.
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