German Conservatives Fret Trump Could Disrupt Path to Victory
(Bloomberg) -- Germany’s conservatives are nervous that Donald Trump’s return to the White House could complicate their march to a resounding election victory over Chancellor Olaf Scholz.
Most Read from Bloomberg
Ambitious High-Speed Rail Plans Advance in the Baltic Region
New York, San Francisco Ranked Worst for US Traffic in City Centers
Even with a comfortable lead in the polls, advisers for Friedrich Merz, the Christian Democratic Union leader, are looking anxiously at Trump’s Jan. 20 inauguration as a watershed event that could shift the election calculus by casting Scholz as a defender of democracy, according to a party official who spoke on condition of anonymity.
Merz, who remains on a glide path to win the Feb. 23 contest, aimed to get the CDU on the offensive at a party meeting in Hamburg on Saturday, amid grumbling that he’d been absent from public view. Merz dismissed the chancellor’s prime-time rebuke this week of Trump’s claims on Greenland and the Panama Canal as “public finger-wagging” that won’t impress the country’s American allies.
“I’m not looking at this date like a rabbit looking at a snake,” Merz said of Jan. 20, playing down worries the change in US leadership could upend German politics.
But as Trump threatens to realign the global order — impacting Germany’s export economy, the threat from Russia, and a surge in support for the far-right Alternative for Germany — Scholz’s camp is betting that public anxiety could revive the chancellor’s fortunes.
Scholz on Saturday reinforced his image as a defender of democratic values against the American’s rhetoric. At a party conference in Berlin, where he was formally nominated as the Social Democratic candidate, he amped up his criticism of Trump’s new expansionist rhetoric.
“The principle of inviolability of borders applies to every country,” Scholz said to loud applause. “No country is the backyard of another. No small country should have to fear its big neighbor. That is the core of what we call Western values — our values.”
‘Bridge Builder’
Like Merz, Scholz and his aides view Trump’s return to the White House as a potential game-changer for the campaign. Trump has many ways of throwing down a wild card that could shift the course of the election, according to people familiar with the chancellor’s thinking who declined to be identified.
German voters sticking with a steady pair of hands at difficult geopolitical moments has precedent. In 2002, Gerhard Schroeder defied sagging support to secure a second term as chancellor, helped by his vocal opposition to US plans to invade Iraq. Angela Merkel attributed her decision to run for a fourth term to Trump’s 2016 victory.
Scholz himself benefited from a late swing to win the election in 2021, in part by projecting himself as a reliable leader in contrast to two other unpopular contenders.
“With Olaf Scholz, we are backing a chancellor characterized by experience, prudence and reliability,” Manuela Schwesig, a Scholz SPD ally, told the party congress. “The election is a choice between two different types: Scholz the bridge builder, or Merz the divider.”
But this year, beleaguered by the collapse of his unpopular coalition, Scholz is getting little tailwind from the countdown to Trump’s return. CDU delegates in Hamburg said that even if it plays a role, it’s doubtful that an anti-Trump campaign can turn the tide. Scholz can’t be compared with Schroeder in 2002, one official said, declining to be named.
While Merz’s bloc slid a percentage point to 30%, the SPD gained a half-point to 16%, according to an Insa poll on Saturday. The far-right AfD climbed a half-point to 22%, the party’s highest level in a year.
Rise of Far Right
CDU and SPD members alike expressed exasperation at the AfD’s rise, particularly after party leader Alice Weidel held a much-publicized conversation with Trump-allied billionaire Elon Musk on his social platform, X, on Thursday.
The event, which showcased Musk’s foray into German politics and support for the far right, got excessive media attention and displaced the CDU’s message, party members close to Merz said on condition of anonymity.
The AfD held its convention to anoint Weidel as its candidate for the chancellery on Saturday, a first for the group. The meeting, in the eastern German Saxon town of Riesa, started two hours late after some 10,000 demonstrators blocked access to the venue.
All parties have refused to work with the AfD, which calls for Germany’s exit from the EU and the deportation of migrants.
Most Read from Bloomberg Businessweek
He Built Russia’s Biggest Tech Company. Now He’s Starting Over—Without Putin
Why AI Investors Should Worry About the Self-Driving Car Crash
How Athletic Sparked the Nonalcoholic Beer Boom With Brews That Don’t Suck
The US Government Is Sitting on a Possible Solution to the Housing Crisis
©2025 Bloomberg L.P.
