German Conservatives Riding High Ahead of Candidate Decision
(Bloomberg) -- Support for Germany’s opposition conservatives rose to the highest in more than three and a half years, according to a new poll, as the CDU/CSU alliance prepares to name its candidate to run against Chancellor Olaf Scholz in next September’s national election.
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The latest Insa survey for Bild am Sonntag newspaper put backing for the conservatives at 33%, up two percentage points from the previous week to the highest level since February 2021. The far-right Alternative for Germany is in second place, with 19% support.
The three parties in Scholz’s ruling coalition — his Social Democrats (14%), the Greens (10%) and the Free Democrats (4%) — managed only 28% between them, the lowest combined total since they took office at the end of 2021. A new far-left party, the BSW, was level with the Greens at 10%.
Voters have become increasingly frustrated with Scholz’s coalition and polls suggest that many don’t trust his government to lift Europe’s biggest economy out of stagnation or tackle issues like irregular migration.
Immigration was one of the main issues in campaigning for two regional elections this month in which parties from the extreme right and left performed strongly.
The AfD came first in the ballot in Thuringia and second in neighboring Saxony and is leading Scholz’s SPD in Brandenburg before the election there next Sunday.
A Forschungsgruppe Wahlen poll for public broadcaster ZDF published Friday showed the anti-immigrant party at 29%, with the SPD, which currently runs the state, at 26%.
As leader of the Christian Democrats, Friedrich Merz would typically be the first choice for conservative chancellor candidate, but the 68-year-old’s weak personal ratings have raised doubts about whether he can recapture the chancellery for the CDU/CSU next year.
Bavaria Premier Markus Soeder, who heads the CDU’s smaller CSU sister-party in the southern state, has also thrown his hat into the ring, while Hendrik Wuest, who runs Germany’s most-populous region of North Rhine-Westphalia, is another potential contender.
Before the 2021 election, Soeder crippled the campaign of then-CDU leader Armin Laschet by initially refusing to cede the candidacy. That helped Scholz’s Social Democrats come from behind to become the strongest party.
Merz has said a decision on the conservative candidate will be made after next week’s vote in Brandenburg — the state that surrounds the German capital Berlin and is home to Scholz’s Potsdam constituency.
Boris Rhein, the CDU premier of the state of Hesse, said Sunday in an interview with ARD that an announcement would probably come “even very immediately after the election” in Brandenburg.
Asked if Merz had a good chance of securing the nomination, he praised the CDU chairman for building the party back up after its defeat in the last election but said there was still plenty to discuss.
“Especially Friedrich Merz and Markus Soeder have to talk about it,” Rhein added.
If Germans could vote directly for their chancellor, 25% would choose Merz and 21% Scholz, according to a separate Insa poll published Sunday. Almost half, or 48%, wouldn’t pick either.
--With assistance from Ros Krasny.
(Updates with Hesse premier comments starting in 12th paragraph.)
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