Goldman Says Trump’s Trade Wars Will Lead to More Yuan Losses
(Bloomberg) -- The yuan is likely to slump further as President-elect Donald Trump is set to slap tariffs on Chinese exports, potentially sparking a trade war, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc.
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“China is likely to be the primary target of the Trump trade wars 2.0,” strategists including Kamakshya Trivedi wrote in a note Friday. They estimate tariffs on Chinese exports will rise by an effective rate of 20 percentage points, in a move that should happen “early in the administration.”
The yuan, which has weakened 1.7% against the US dollar since Trump won the election, is seen hitting 7.40 in three months, compared with the current level of 7.23. It should trade near 7.50 in six and 12 months, strategists added.
A potential protectionist shift in the US threatens to upend global trade and keep emerging-market assets under pressure. During the campaign, Trump called tariffs “the most beautiful word in the dictionary.”
Despite the trade risks, Chinese policymakers’ efforts to put a floor under local economic activity, property markets and equities will likely determine the “bigger picture” for the country’s assets, the strategists said.
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