Hungary Births Drop to Record in Blow to Orban’s Family Policies

(Bloomberg) -- The number of births in Hungary dropped to a record last year, raising questions about the demographic impact of Prime Minister Viktor Orban’s lavish family subsidy program.

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Births dropped to 77,500 in 2024, down 9.1% from the previous year, according to data published by the Budapest-based statistics office on Friday. The fertility rate fell for a third year to below 1.4, compared with the 2.1 average that’s considered the replacement level.

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While declining demographics and the resulting labor shortages are a widespread phenomena in the developed world, Orban has touted tax breaks and subsidized mortgages for new parents as a model for anti-immigrant nationalists.

US Vice President JD Vance has praised Orban’s policies as a potential model while Elon Musk had also shown interest when meeting with Hungary’s then-president in 2023. Hungary also hosts a bi-annual international conference on demography.

Steps have included forgiving subsidized mortgages for those with multiple children, state aid for the purchase of cars for larger families and a lifetime personal income tax exemption for mothers of four or more children.

Those incentives though were blunted by spiraling real estate prices and the EU’s highest inflation in Hungary, which topped 25% two years ago and fueled a housing crisis.

The population dropped below 10 million in 2011, a year after Orban returned to power, and is now estimated at 9.5 million, according to the statistics office. Poland also saw the lowest number of childbirth since World War II last year.

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