Irish Premier, Ahead in Polls, Calls Election for This Month
(Bloomberg) -- Ireland will hold an election later this month after Prime Minister Simon Harris ended months of speculation about an early vote, taking advantage of favorable poll numbers and a slump in support for Sinn Fein, the main opposition party.
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Harris said late Wednesday that a vote will take place on Nov. 29, even though one isn’t required until next March.
The 38-year-old became Ireland’s youngest ever prime minister — or Taoiseach — in April after taking over as leader of Fine Gael, the main party in the coalition government.
While he’s had crises in immigration, housing and healthcare to deal with, he’s generally enjoyed a honeymoon period with voters and seen a huge jump in his personal ratings. At the same time, Sinn Fein support has plunge from the highs of recent years and is now trailing in polls.
Harris has also benefited from having the resources to keep the public on side. Tax revenue from multinational firms like Google and Amazon, as well as a one-off back-tax payment of €14 billion ($15 billion) from Apple Inc., have put the country on track for a huge fiscal surplus this year.
Harris used some of that for a €10.5 billion budget bonanza that included several tax credits and extra welfare payments to be dished out before Christmas.
But with Donald Trump’s US election victory, there’s concern about the potential impact that increased protectionism would have on Ireland’s corporation tax receipts, the majority of which comes from US firms based there. Speaking on national broadcaster RTE, Harris said that the government has “prepared for any external shocks” and set aside funds in case there’s a decline in tax income.
The election announcement, widely expected to come on Friday, was surprisingly made on television and not in parliament. Harris said he will ask President Michael D Higgins to seek the dissolution of the Dail, as the parliament is known, on Friday when he returns from a meeting of European leaders in Budapest.
“I’m looking forward to the weeks ahead and asking the people of Ireland for a mandate,” he said.
Immigration
As seen in many other elections in recent years, immigration is likely to be a dominant issue for voters. Ireland was shocked by violent riots late last year, while there have been repeated protests and clashes with police outside accommodation used to house asylum seekers. While Ireland doesn’t have a single, large far-right party — like AfD in Germany or National Rally in France — there has been an increase in support for independent anti-immigration figures.
Going to the polls now makes sense for Fine Gael given the growing crisis in Sinn Fein. At one point, the former political wing of the Irish Republican Army terrorist group was topping the polls, with its numbers above 30%.
But it’s struggled to respond with a clear message on immigration, which has cost it support. It’s also been damaged by a series of crises, including one related to a party member who sent inappropriate text messages to a teenager.
Acknowledging the challenges, Sinn Fein director of elections, Matt Carthy, said that the party has “work to do,” but that “elections have a way of crystallizing people’s minds around the policies that are being put forward and what various policy options are in place.”
A poll by the Sunday Times newspaper last month put Fine Gael support at 24%. Approval for Fianna Fail, the second party in Harris’s coalition, was on 19%, while Sinn Fein had fallen to 16%.
A separate survey in the Irish Times in September — before the budget — also showed Fine Gael leading. Harris’s approval rating was 55%, up 17 points from May.
Still, given the public frustration over immigration, housing and healthcare, Harris is unlikely to get enough seats to govern alone. Should he win, he’ll have to form another coalition.
Fine Gael has previously ruled out any partnership with Sinn Fein. Harris also said recently that he wouldn’t go into an election with a vote transfer pact with any other party.
(Updates with polls, Sinn Fein comment, starting in fourth paragraph.)
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