Israel and Hezbollah Close to Ceasefire Deal, Says Israel’s Envoy to Washington

(Bloomberg) -- Israel is potentially days away from a cease-fire agreement with Lebanon’s Hezbollah, following a new round of shuttle diplomacy by a senior envoy for the outgoing Biden administration.

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“We are close to a deal,” the Israeli ambassador to the US, Michael Herzog, told Israel’s Army Radio on Monday, adding that some final points still needed to be addressed. “It could happen within days.”

The Israeli security cabinet is expected to meet on Tuesday and may vote on whether to accept a truce with Hezbollah, according to an Israeli official familiar with the matter.

The Israeli shekel strengthened 1.5% against the dollar on Monday — its best performance in around a month — and oil prices dropped on optimism a deal would ease tensions in the Middle East.

Still, there have been similar predictions by other Israeli and US officials in recent weeks about an agreement being imminent and it remains unclear if Hezbollah will accept a deal.

The Iran-backed group has been severely weakened after two months of increased Israeli sabotage, air strikes and ground incursions in southern Lebanon. But it’s still able to fire rockets into Israel on a daily basis and put up some resistance against Israeli ground forces.

On Sunday, Hezbollah fired at least 250 rockets and drones into Israel, wounding several people, and the Israeli air force struck targets in Lebanon.

In Israel, a far-right coalition member, National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, came out against the proposed truce. He said it would be a “missed opportunity” to crush Hezbollah, a militia group is ideologically committed to Israel’s destruction. But Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu may still be able to secure cabinet support even without Ben-Gvir’s approval.

The two sides have been in conflict since Hezbollah began striking Israeli territory in October last year in solidarity with Hamas. Both Hezbollah and Hamas — which triggered the ongoing war in Gaza with its attack on southern Israel — are designated as terrorist organizations by the US and many other countries.

Amos Hochstein, a White House envoy for the Middle East, was in Lebanon and Israel last week to try to clinch a cease-fire before President Joe Biden hands over to Donald Trump in January. Another US envoy, Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense Daniel Shapiro, was in Israel on Sunday and Monday for what local media said were talks on future security arrangements in Lebanon.

According to Army Radio, once Netanyahu’s security cabinet signs off on a truce, Washington will take it to Beirut, where government officials have been serving as intermediaries for Hezbollah. Last week, one of Hezbollah’s main political allies, Lebanese House Speaker Nabih Berri, said there was progress but there were still “technical details” to resolve.

The US-drafted proposal entails an initial 60-day suspension of hostilities during which Hezbollah fighters would move north of the Litani River, about 30 kilometers (19 miles) away from the Israeli border.

Israel also wants the Lebanese army, which is separate from Hezbollah, to deploy in the south of Lebanon, beefing up a contingent of United Nations peacekeepers and helping to ensure the militant group doesn’t operate there.

The Israeli government wants the right to resume strikes in Lebanon in the event of infractions by Hezbollah. The Lebanese government and Hezbollah have pushed back at that demand.

Around 2,500 people have been killed in Lebanon by Israeli strikes and the ground offensive in the past two months, while 1.2 million — more than a fifth of the population — have been displaced. About 50 Israeli troops have been killed in combat in southern Lebanon.

Tens of thousands of civilians have been displaced from both sides of the Israel-Lebanon border. Netanyahu’s cabinet has made enabling the return of northern Israelis to their homes a priority, something that can’t happen without an end to fighting with Hezbollah.

Talks between Israel and Hamas over a cease-fire in Gaza, meanwhile, have stalled for months. Though the conflicts are connected, there’s little sign a deal over Lebanon would increase the chances of a truce in Gaza.

Hezbollah initially said it wouldn’t stop attacking Israel until there was a cease-fire in Gaza, but it softened its position as it suffered military losses.

“Hezbollah folded on this demand, due to the heavy drubbing it took,” Zeev Elkin, a member of Israel’s security cabinet, said to Tel Aviv radio station 103 FM.

(Updates with details on security cabinet meeting.)

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