What would a Kamala Harris victory mean for the UK?
Kamala Harris will claim an historic victory as the first woman to get the keys to the White House if she wins the US presidential election on 5 November.
Kamala Harris will claim an historic victory as the first woman to get the keys to the White House if she wins the US presidential election on 5 November.
While Harris has enjoyed various small leads over her Republican rival Donald Trump since taking over the campaign from incumbent president Joe Biden, the margins are closing and the race remains anyone's to win.
The results of this November’s presidential election could not only spell significant changes for the US in the four years ahead, but also closer to home.
And while the UK has previously navigated a relationship with Trump, a Harris victory would be new territory for the country – albeit an easier situation for the new Labour government to find itself in.
Here’s what you need to know about what a Harris win would mean for the UK – and the world at large.
A ‘sigh of relief’ for the special relationship
Professor Paul Whiteley, who specialises in electoral behaviour at the department for government at the University of Essex, told Yahoo News that Harris’s appointment would be an overwhelmingly positive result for UK-US relations. In fact, he thinks that the government would “breathe a huge sigh of relief”.
While the new Labour government began quietly courting team Trump even before their election victory, it is clear that Trump’s Republican party would be a trickier relationship to navigate.
“Trump, if he were president, would have a transactional relationship with the UK. Do something for me, and I'll do something for you. If you don't do something for me, I won't do something for you,” Whiteley told Yahoo News.
“Whereas the relationship with Harris, as with Biden, is more human and based on common cultures.”
Although the prime minister, Sir Keir Starmer, met Trump when he was in New York in September, and said he wanted to meet both presidential candidates, it is unlikely he will have time to schedule in a visit with Harris before the US goes to the polls.
Foreign policy likely to be an extension of Biden administration
Incumbent president Joe Biden's desire to strengthen the transatlantic alliance between the US and Europe has been the cornerstone of his foreign policy over the past four years.
His approach was described by Foreign Policy magazine as “the most transformative phase in US foreign policy in decades”, including working with Australia and the UK to align the region’s maritime democracies under the Aukus pact, as well as making six visits to the UK to strengthen ties.
When it comes to Harris, however, Allie Rennison, a former policy adviser to the business and trade secretary, says some have fear her approach lacks thought, with some accusing the presidential hopeful of playing “the continuity card”.
Whiteley also notes that while leaders in the UK and Europe will want to contact Harris and “make close relationships”, they’ll initially see her “as an extension of the Biden administration”.
“Unlike her predecessor, Harris has been criticised for not having a lot of focus on foreign policy,” Rennison told Yahoo News UK. "Foreign policy is something that's very, very close traditionally to Joe Biden's heart.”
But Rennison believes there is ample opportunity for Harris to adopt the UK as a “green transition” partner to boost her foreign policy credentials.
“I could foresee that Harris would basically be looking to the UK as a sort of partner in burnishing her foreign policy credentials in terms of energy and climate change cooperation,” she added.
Trade between US and UK 'likely to be easier' under Harris
The UK’s position on the world stage could also be affected by Harris’s approach to China.
Strategic competition between the US and China is expected to intensify whether Trump or Harris assumes the presidency in 2025, according to the the International Crisis Group.
Harris may take a more “pragmatic” approach to the US’s relationship with China, drawing on her former career as a civil rights lawyer, taking an interest in issues of human rights and international law, which provide ample fodder for bilateral frictions.
“We might see a little bit more openness to doing sort of more classical free trade agreements and a little bit less kind of reactionaryism to China under Harris,” Rennison said.
“However, I think Kamala Harris would probably be encouraged to keep with some of the lines of the policies and tariffs the US has already put on, you know, things like electric vehicles imported from China.”
It seems that whatever approach Harris takes, it will be in the UK’s best interests to take her lead – especially when it comes to making sure it isn’t vulnerable as a trading partner.
“Now post Brexit, the UK is a bit of a piggy in the middle,” Rennison said.
“It hasn't had to make those choices so much under Biden. The EU has had a much more robust set of mechanisms to respond to any potential trade war with the US on in terms of retaliation on tariffs.
“The UK, however, doesn't have that level of trade defence instruments the same way.”
Whiteley also believes that as a whole, under a Harris administration, trade between the UK and US would be a lot easier – and it would be following a more measured lead when it comes to its international approach.
“It would be a lot more palatable to do business with the US, certainly under Harris,” he added.