Labour Set for 162-Seat Majority, More in Common MRP Poll Finds

(Bloomberg) -- Keir Starmer’s Labour Party is heading for a 162-seat majority in next month’s UK general election, according to a More in Common poll that’s the latest to point to Conservative Prime Minister Rishi Sunak being swept out of office after the vote in 15 days’ time.

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Labour is likely to win 406 seats, almost doubling their tally from 2019, while the Tory count is projected to more than halve to 155 seats, according to the seat-by-seat analysis by More in Common for the News Agents podcast. The Liberal Democrats are on track to take 49 seats — up 38 on the last election.

While the survey projects a smaller Labour majority than other recent so-called multi-regression and post-stratification (MRP) modeling, a 162-seat majority would still be more than double that secured five years ago by former Tory Prime Minister Boris Johnson, and approaching Labour’s best-ever election result, the 179-seat majority secured in 1997 by Tony Blair.

“The fact that this projection showing the Conservatives barely holding 150 seats is one of the most favorable to the Conservatives shows how deep a hole the party finds itself in — with barely two weeks to go for them to change the dial,” More in Common Director Luke Tryl said in a statement.

The survey didn’t project any seat wins for Brexit campaigner Nigel Farage’s Reform UK party, which has recently overtaken the Tories in at least one national poll. A long fieldwork period may not have captured Reform’s recent rise in the polls, Tryl said on the social media platform X.

Separately, a constituency poll by Survation in Clacton, where Farage is standing as a candidate, showed him easily winning the seat with 42% of the vote, compared with 27% for the Tory incumbent, Giles Watling.

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