Low probability of frontline changes in Ukraine during winter, says British intelligence

The Armed Forces of Ukraine
The Armed Forces of Ukraine

There is a low probability of frontline changes in Ukraine during winter, particularly in the country’s east, according to the latest intelligence report by the British Defense Ministry on Nov. 18.

Read also: Ukraine deploys three brigades across Dnipro River — report

Drones and artillery, especially cluster munitions, continue to play an important role in countering attacks by both sides, the report says.

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Over the last week, the most intense ground combat has taken place in three areas: on the Kupyansk axis in Luhansk Oblast; around Avdiivka in Donetsk Oblast; and on the left bank of the Dnipro River in Kherson Oblast, where Ukrainian forces have established a bridgehead.

Neither side has achieved substantial progress in any of these areas. Russia continues to suffer particularly heavy casualties around Avdiivka.

Read also: Ukraine trying to push Russian invaders out of shelling range of Kherson on left bank of Dnipro

What is happening on the left bank of Kherson Oblast?

Since mid-October, the U.S.-based think tank Institute for the Study of War (ISW) has reported on a Ukrainian advance on the left bank of Kherson Oblast.

Read also: Russia rapidly retracts retreat announcement, Ukraine says fake announcement was disinformation move

ISW reported a breakthrough across the Dnipro to the occupied part of the region near the village of Oleshkivska.

At the time, judging by the reaction of Russian “war correspondents,” this operation could be more significant than previous similar raids by the Ukrainian Armed Forces (AFU).

At the end of October, analysts reported a Ukrainian advance on the village of Krynky, and on Nov. 10, there was speculation about the possible expansion of the bridgehead, cutting the vital road from Nova Kakhovka to Oleshky.

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