It's the Fourth of July and time to bet on a little baseball. Here are a couple of spots that caught our eye.
San Diego Padres (-110) at Philadelphia Phillies (+105), total: 9
The Padres send Blake Snell to the mound after skipping his last start. Snell has been flat-out awful in his eight road starts this season, allowing a 1.032 OPS to opponents and posting a 10.36 ERA. He has also walked 24 batters in 28.2 innings away from home.
Phillies starter Vince Velasquez is completely average, but this is a total fade of road Snell.
The Phillies' bullpen has been brutal this season, so it's fair to expect some runs on both sides. Let's take some action that limits the effect of Philadelphia's relievers.
The bets: Phillies first five (+110); over 9 (-110)
San Francisco Giants (-155) at Arizona Diamondbacks (+125), total: 9
The Giants are good; the Diamondbacks are awful. But this one is about San Francisco starter Anthony DeSclafani.
DeSclafani has been fantastic this season (2.91 ERA, two shutouts), but he is completely outperforming his advanced pitching metrics. Dig deeper into the numbers and he's still the same league average pitcher. It could be regression time.
Yes, we know Arizona is the worst team in baseball, but it is still a major league team.
Both squads should put up some runs, but it is impossible to trust the Diamondbacks to win.
The bet: over 9 (-105)