MLB betting: Three props for Thursday's pivotal Game 5

·4-min read

The two best words in sports: Game 5. 

All right, not quite, but in this scenario it applies. The Los Angeles Dodgers and San Francisco Giants are tied at two games a piece in their best-of-five National League Divisional Series. 

Game 5 will see Logan Webb of the Giants go up against Julio Urias of the Dodgers. The line is a pick'em, with both teams currently sitting at -110 on the moneyline at BetMGM. The total for the game is set at 7. 

With these two teams so evenly matched, picking a winner seems like an impossible task. For that reason, you might be more interested in exploring the player prop market at BetMGM.

Focus on the Giants' ace

Logan Webb was absolutely dominant for the Giants in Game 1 of this series. He went 7 2/3 innings, allowing no runs, walking zero and striking out 10. San Francisco went on to win the game 4-0. 

Webb was solid all season for the Giants, posting a 3.03 ERA in 148 1/3 innings while striking out over a batter per inning. 

However, this play barely considers Webb's track record and talent at all. I'm taking Webb to record under 15.5 outs in Game 5. 

It's not that I expect Webb to struggle or even perform poorly. This is more of a play based on the organizational philosophy of the San Francisco Giants. 

San Francisco, CA - October 08: San Francisco Giants starting pitcher Logan Webb reacts after striking out Los Angeles Dodgers' Cody Bellinger during the seventh inning at Oracle Park on Friday, Oct. 8, 2021 in San Francisco, CA. (Robert Gauthier / Los Angeles Times via Getty Images)
Giants pitcher Logan Webb looks for a repeat of his Game 1 performance. (Robert Gauthier / Los Angeles Times via Getty Images)

Since Webb's start in Game 1 of this series, the Giants have used their bullpen heavily. They used 6 pitchers in Game 2, 4 pitchers in Game 3 and 8 pitchers in Game 4. With this being an elimination game, all hands are on deck, including normal starters Kevin Gausman and Alex Wood out of the bullpen. 

The Giants are one of the more analytical teams in baseball and they'll be proactive in getting to their bullpen. It's hard to expect Webb to replicate his Game 1 performance, but even if he does, I wouldn't be shocked to see manager Gabe Kapler limit Webb to just two times through the order. 

There's also the possibility of the Giants being in a position where they need to pull Webb earlier than they want to due to the need for a pinch hitter. With the total in this game so low, runs will be at a premium and I'm not convinced that the Giants will be in a position to squander scoring opportunities by letting their pitcher bat if such a situation arises. 

Will Justin Turner struggle?

This one was a tough one and I see both sides of the argument. However, I let the odds make the decision for me. 

I like Justin Turner to record UNDER 0.5 hits in this game at +180 odds.

There's no good time for a batter to go through a slump, but it happens. These slumps are magnified when they occur during the postseason. 

Through 17 at-bats in this series, Justin Turner has just one hit. He looks completely out of sync at the plate. Slumps are often mental, and at +180 odds I'm willing to bet on the possibility his struggles continue for at least one more day. 

It's a tough bet to make because Turner is the king of big postseason moments and this elimination game definitely gives him an opportunity to add to that resume. Turner is the franchise's leader in postseason hits, home runs, runs and RBIs. 

If you'd rather bet on his all-time track record, Turner is currently +600 to hit a home run or +135 to go over 1.5 total bases.

Buster Posey could thrive

It's been an incredible comeback season for Buster Posey. He hit .304 on the season with an OPS a few ticks under .900. He's continued his solid play into the postseason, where he's batting .313 and has hits in three of four games. 

Posey has handled Dodgers' starter Julio Urias extremely well through his career. In 18 career at-bats, Posey has nine hits against Urias with three doubles. This includes the double Posey hit against Urias in Game 2 of this series. 

I like Posey to go over 1.5 total bases at +140 in Game 5. He's an extremely professional hitter who's currently in a groove. He's performed well against Urias. Posey has also played in a lot of big games over his career, so he shouldn't be overwhelmed by the moment. 

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