Kyle Larson’s run as the weekly NASCAR betting favorite is over.
Larson has been usurped by teammate Chase Elliott at the top of BetMGM’s board. Elliott is at +450 to win Sunday’s Cup Series race at Sonoma (4 p.m. ET, Fox Sports 1), while Larson is the No. 2 favorite. Larson had been the favorite for the past six Cup Series races including the exhibition All-Star Race.
Elliott is the obvious favorite at Sonoma given his status as NASCAR’s best road racer and the bets he attracts as NASCAR's most popular driver. But Sonoma is the only road course on the Cup Series schedule where he hasn’t gotten to Victory Lane. Larson won the 2021 race at Sonoma ahead of Elliott after they started and ended the race in the top two starting spots.
Sunday’s race is also a return to the old days at Sonoma. The experiment of the carousel is gone after NASCAR and the track announced before the season that the track would go back to its customary 1.99 miles for the Cup Series. The Cup Series ran on the 1.99-mile layout at Sonoma from 1998-2018 before the Cup Series ran the full layout in both 2019 and 2021.
The full layout wasn’t exactly very thrilling — passing opportunities were limited in that extra half mile — and now the track is back to where it used to be.
Here’s what you need to know to bet Sunday’s Cup Series race. All odds are from BetMGM.
Chase Elliott (+450)
Kyle Larson (+700)
AJ Allmendinger (+900)
Kyle Busch (+900)
Martin Truex Jr. (+900)
Ross Chastain (+900)
Larson won three of the five road course races a season ago. Elliott’s rainy win at COTA and Allmendinger’s win at Indianapolis were the two that Larson didn’t win. Larson finished in the top three in both of those races. Busch is a two-time winner at Sonoma and both of his wins came on the layout that NASCAR is using on Sunday. Truex has won three times at Sonoma and has two wins on the 1.99-mile layout and one win on the bigger track. Chastain won this year at COTA for what was his first Cup Series win.
Good mid-tier value
Austin Cindric (+1400)
Joey Logano (+1800)
Cindric is the No. 7 favorite but the gap between him and Chastain makes him a solid play. He’s going to win a Cup road course race sooner rather than later, though he’s making his first start at Sonoma on Sunday. Logano has just three top-fives in 12 Sonoma starts but those odds make him worth a play.
Don’t bet this driver
Daniel Suarez (+2500)
Suarez has never finished in the top 10 in four Sonoma starts and has an average finish of 15th. It’s not going to be terribly surprising if he wins a race this year, but it’ll be very surprising if that happens on Sunday.
Looking for a long shot?
Erik Jones (+5000)
Jones has two top-10 finishes at Sonoma and was 10th a season ago. Another top-10 isn’t out of the question.