NBA betting: Nearly 90% of bets on Warriors over Grizzlies in play-in game

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Both the public and big-money bettors are backing the Golden State Warriors over the Memphis Grizzlies in Friday night’s NBA Western Conference play-in game.

The Warriors opened up as 3.5-point favorites at BetMGM, and the point spread has swelled to Warriors -5 as of Friday morning. When you look at the betting splits, it’s easy to see why that number has shifted.

According to BetMGM, a whopping 87% of the bets and 84% of the money are on the Warriors covering the spread.

“Bettors love Steph Curry and the Warriors in the NBA play-in game. BetMGM will need the Grizzlies to cover,” said Seamus Magee, a sports trader for BetMGM.

The Warriors nearly upset LeBron James and the Los Angeles Lakers on Wednesday night. They took a double-digit lead into halftime, but the Lakers crawled back and James hit a game-winning three-pointer in the final minute.

That pushed the Warriors into a win-or-go-home game against the Grizzlies, who knocked off the San Antonio Spurs behind big performances from Jonas Valanciunas, Ja Morant and Dillon Brooks.

The Grizzlies are 42-31 ATS this season, one of the best records in the league. That includes an impressive 22-14 ATS record on the road, including a 13-8 ATS mark as a road underdog. At the same time, though, the Warriors have done really well as home favorites, going 13-6 ATS in those situations.

SAN FRANCISCO, CALIFORNIA - MAY 16: Stephen Curry #30 of the Golden State Warriors dribbling the ball is closely defended by Jaren Jackson Jr. #13 of the Memphis Grizzlies during the second half of an NBA basketball game at Chase Center on May 16, 2021 in San Francisco, California. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images)
The Golden State Warriors and Memphis Grizzlies will meet in an elimination play-in game on Friday night. (Photo by Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images)

Huge point total expected from Steph Curry

The oddsmakers aren’t expecting the Warriors to go down without some potential fireworks from Curry, the NBA scoring champion. Curry led the NBA by averaging 32 points per game. His point total prop for Friday night is a huge number: 38.5 points. Per BetMGM, 50% of the bets and 61% of the money are on the under.

For context, Curry has surpassed 38.5 points 11 times this season, including when he dropped 46 against the Grizzlies only five days ago.

Another Curry prop — over 6.5 3-pointers — has received more action than his total points. The other most popular props for Friday night’s game at BetMGM are a Warriors winning margin bet (Warriors by 6-10 points) and Jonas Valanciunas total rebounds (over 14.5).

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