Sometimes, the wisdom of crowds is actually smart to follow. Not very often though, and maybe not for NFL future bets.
The NFL season starts this week, and we've had months to grab our favorite Super Bowl, MVP and season win total bets at BetMGM. We also can see how the public is feeling about this NFL season based on those bets.
Here are the top bets for each of the major NFL futures markets at BetMGM as we head into the season:
Super Bowl: Bettors like Buccaneers repeat
It's hard to repeat, but the Buccaneers have all 22 starters back — a first in the salary-cap era for a Super Bowl champ — and decent odds. The Bucs opened at +1200 to win the Super Bowl, and that has dipped to +700.
The Bucs lead the highest ticket percentage and the highest handle percentage (amount of money bet) at BetMGM for the Super Bowl this season, with the Chiefs right behind:
The last repeat champions were the 2003-04 Patriots. It's hard to reach the finish line two years in a row in the NFL. A lot can go wrong. Bettors aren't worried about the Bucs winning again.
MVP: Tom Brady getting the most money
Imagine, before Tom Brady turned 40, believing a 44-year-old QB would ever win an NFL MVP.
While Josh Allen has the most tickets to win MVP, it's Tom Brady who is dominating the money bet in that market. Brady's odds to win MVP opened at +1600, and that has dropped to +1400.
Josh Allen 18.5%
Patrick Mahomes 9.8%
Matthew Stafford 8.5%
Tom Brady 26.7%
Patrick Mahomes 14.7%
Josh Allen 13.7%
With plenty of targets to throw to and team that should be a contender again, Brady is a fine pick for MVP. He would be a historic pick too. With more than a quarter of the MVP money on Brady, a lot of people will be rooting for it.
Season win total over: Lions are the popular bet
Everyone loves the Lions, just take a look ...
Most bet overs
Lions over 5
Titans over 9
Broncos over 8.5
But wait ...
Season win total under: Lions are also the popular bet
Most bet unders
Lions under 5
Bengals under 6.5
Jaguars under 6.5
Hey, at least a lot of people will be following the Lions season wins, good or bad. Michigan fans are probably driving the over bets, because they have done a remarkable job supporting the local teams with bets. The rest of the bets could be those who see the Lions as the second-worst team in the NFL and don't see them getting to five wins. It's just crazy to see the same team leading both categories.
Here are the teams whose season win totals have changed, either due to volume of bets or other circumstances:
Broncos: opened 7.5, now 8.5 (over -135)
Chiefs: opened 12, now 12.5 (under -125)
Rams: opened 10, now 10.5 (under -125)
Vikings: opened 9, now 8.5 (over -160)
Packers: opened 10, now 10.5 (under -130)
Ravens: opened 11, now 10.5 (over -165)
And here are the top plays for the other major awards, via BetMGM:
Offensive Rookie of the Year
Highest Ticket%: Najee Harris 22.6%
Highest Handle%: Zach Wilson 25.1%
Defensive Rookie of the Year
Highest Ticket%: Patrick Surtain II
Highest Handle%: Patrick Surtain II
Coach of the Year
Highest Ticket%: Robert Saleh 10.7%
Highest Handle%: Kyle Shanahan 19.9%