The NFL world saw a trade deadline unlike any we've seen before. Big-name players switched teams. It was the most active deadline in NFL history.
But there's also perhaps a lesson to be learned. Oddsmakers didn't really think all that movement changed anything, in terms of Super Bowl favorites.
Even with players like Bradley Chubb, Chase Claypool and T.J. Hockenson changing teams and making headlines, all of the Super Bowl odds remained the same according to BetMGM data analyst John Ewing.
There were a record 10 trades made today - the most ever for an NFL deadline day.
No NFL future odds moved at @BetMGM today.
— John Ewing 🦁 (@johnewing) November 2, 2022
It was fun to talk about the trades and their ramifications. But bettors know that there are only a few non-quarterbacks who move a point spread, much less Super Bowl odds, and none of them changed teams on Tuesday.
What are the Super Bowl odds?
Here are the current Super Bowl odds at BetMGM:
Buffalo Bills +230
Philadelphia Eagles +550
Kansas City Chiefs +650
San Francisco 49ers +1200
Baltimore Ravens +1400
Dallas Cowboys +1400
You can see the big gap between the third-highest team and everyone else, which fits with the narrative for this season.
It makes sense that we didn't see a big shift in Super Bowl odds Tuesday. The biggest difference maker to change teams in a trade was Christian McCaffrey to the 49ers, and that happened a couple weeks ago. The 49ers have moved up to fourth in the odds behind the big three.
The best player to be traded on Tuesday was Chubb, a pass rusher who moved from the Denver Broncos to the Miami Dolphins, and while that makes the Dolphins a better team they're still well behind the Bills in the AFC East. They're still 30-to-1 to win the Super Bowl.
It was a fun deadline. Just maybe not as impactful as you might be led to believe.
A few teams notably didn't make a move
The lack of action from a few teams might actually have the biggest impact on who wins the championship.
The Green Bay Packers could have made a statement by picking up a receiver, but they didn't. The Los Angeles Rams are always active, but didn't make a trade on Tuesday. Neither did the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who could have used a shot in the arm. The Dallas Cowboys' odds might have changed a bit had they been able to land receiver Brandin Cooks from the Houston Texans.
Those teams couldn't get a deal done before the deadline. The contenders listed in the odds above made moves early (linebacker Roquan Smith to the Ravens, McCaffrey to the 49ers, pass rusher Robert Quinn to the Eagles) or tinkered with the roster with some low-cost additions (running back Nyheim Hines and safety Dean Marlowe to the Bills, receiver Kadarius Toney to the Chiefs).
None of the three top teams in the NFL made a huge impact trade on Tuesday. Many teams did make splashy moves. Just none that were enough to change the Super Bowl odds.