Week 4 of the NFL season begins on Thursday night with the Cincinnati Bengals playing host to the Jacksonville Jaguars. The Jaguars are still looking for their first win of the Urban Meyer and Trevor Lawrence era. Jacksonville finds themselves as 7.5-point road underdogs against the Bengals.
Some might not be rushing to lay over a touchdown with the Cincinnati Bengals, which is understandable. For those people, the prop market might be a great way to get involved in the game. Below, we'll take a look at three player props that caught our eye courtesy of BetMGM.
Anytime you have a game with a spread larger than a touchdown, the first place you should look in the player prop market is the running back of the team that is favorited.
Joe Mixon has had a workhorse start to the season, averaging over 22 carries and 95 yards per game on the ground. Only Najee Harris and Alvin Kamara are on the field more for their respective teams than Mixon.
Mixon has received this workload and the Bengals have yet to be the favorites in any game this season. With Cincinnati clearly in the favorite role on Thursday night, Mixon might be leaned on even more heavily to close out the game.
Jacksonville's run defense has been about league average and the same can be said about the Bengals' run-blocking ability. I expect the volume to be there for Mixon on Thursday night. Mixon's over/under for rushing attempts is currently set at 20.5 attempts. With the way I expect this game to go, I'd go over 20.5 attempts.
It's been an ugly start to the career of the first overall pick out of Clemson. Trevor Lawrence has thrown 7 interceptions already in his first three games. However, we aren't looking to his arm on Thursday night.
An underrated aspect of Lawrence's game at Clemson was his ability to pick up yards on the ground. In his three years as starter, Lawrence ran the ball 231 times for 943 yards. He's already turning to his feet at the NFL level.
In his first career start, Lawrence scrambled just once for -2 yards. In his second start, he added 21 yards on the ground. However, against Arizona in Week 3, Lawrence rushed the ball 6 times for 27 yards. We've seen a steady increase in both rushing attempts and rushing yards on a game-by-game basis for Lawrence.
Lawrence's rushing total for Thursday's game is set at 16.5 yards. The Bengals allowed Justin Fields to rush for 31 yards in Week 2, despite Fields not playing the full game. With the Bengals likely leading the game for most of the night, Lawrence might be forced to run to avoid the pass-rush. I like the rookie to go over 16.5 yards on the ground.
So it turns out that Ja'Marr Chase can catch the ball...who would have thought?
The rookie wide receiver out of LSU has four touchdowns in his first three games and he's clearly re-established the connection he had with his former college quarterback in Joe Burrow.
What's impressive (or concerning, depending how you look at it) is that Chase is producing these numbers without a whole lot of volume. He's averaging just over 5 targets per game and even his yardage numbers don't blow you away. However, it seems like he always makes that one big play that changes the game.
It's hard to trust Chase to go over 4.5 receptions or over 69.5 yards due to the lack of volume and potential game-script concerns. However, I'm riding with Chase to continue his streak of scoring touchdowns. With Tee Higgins out again and the lack of true tight-end option on the Bengals, Chase should be a target in the red zone or on deep shot plays.
Chase is currently +105 to score a touchdown at anytime on Thursday.