Before the Miami Dolphins kicked off on Sunday, Tua Tagovailoa was 80-to-1 to win NFL MVP. Those odds are nowhere to be found anymore.
MVP odds change all the time during the season, but rarely like they've changed for Tagovailoa this week. Every day this week, Tagovailoa's odds have gotten significantly shorter at BetMGM.
This is like tracking a stock that absolutely explodes out of nowhere:
Tagovailoa MVP odds on Sunday before kickoff: +8000
Hope you got those Tagovailoa MVP bets in last week.
Tua Tagovailoa climbs the list of MVP odds
After that flurry of activity, Tagovailoa has the fifth-best odds to win MVP. Based on the BetMGM NFL MVP odds, we have five contenders right now. Everyone else is +2500 or longer:
Patrick Mahomes +200
Jalen Hurts +225
Josh Allen +300
Lamar Jackson +1000
Tagovailoa's odds surge is due to a few reasons. First, he was way too high at 80-to-1. That is being corrected. Also, Allen's elbow injury and the Buffalo Bills' loss last week to the New York Jets tightened up the MVP race. Allen looked like a clear favorite before that Jets' loss, but he's not anymore. That changes the outlook for everyone else on the radar.
And perhaps oddsmakers and bettors are coming around to how good the Dolphins have been with Tagovailoa on the field this season.
Tagovailoa has been very good
Tagovailoa has started and finished six games. The Dolphins are 6-0 in those games.
Tagovailoa isn't just along for the ride either. He has been remarkably efficient this season. He leads the NFL with a 115.9 passer rating. He is averaging 282.9 passing yards per game, and has a 15-3 touchdown-to-interception ratio.
Dolphins receiver Tyreek Hill is on pace for 2,086 yards and deserves to be a top-five MVP candidate. However, deserve really doesn't have much to do with betting on futures. A receiver has never won MVP. It's a quarterback award, period. In a fair world Hill would have Tagovailoa's MVP odds, but we know the history of NFL MVP voters. You'd lose a lot of money betting on non-quarterbacks year after year.
Tagovailoa is the Dolphins' best shot to win MVP. He missed two-and-a-half games due to a concussion, but his raw numbers will start to catch up to the others. If the Dolphins keep winning, he'll get some MVP attention.
Bettors and oddsmakers already are giving Tagovailoa's story its proper attention.