NFL Week 1 is done. Of the entire slate, 12 games went under the total, with seven finishing as one-point games. Low scoring and tight contests make for good teaser weeks. Here’s your option for Week 2. Record: 1-0.
If you are new to betting NFL teasers or just need a refresher, here are some general guidelines to follow to keep risk in check.
Stick to six-point teasers (you need to win more consistently to offset the higher price).
Keep it to a two-team teaser (the more pieces you add, the greater the risk).
Target lower-totaled games (the more points expected, the more variance involved).
Tease through the key numbers of three and seven (this approach is at the heart of all proven winning strategies).
Current NFL Week 2 teaser-leg options (BetMGM)
Titans +8.5 vs. Chargers, 45.5
Packers +7.5 at Falcons, 40
Colts +7 at Texans, 39
Bears +8.5 at Buccaneers, 40.5
Bills -2.5 vs. Raiders, 47
Steelers +8.5 vs. Browns, 38.5
Teaser legs to avoid
Although enticing, avoid using Buffalo on a two-team six-point teaser. For one, it’s a personal preference not backing favorites when the juice for a teaser is pricey. Plus, of the options listed, it’s the highest point total, which offers an added element of risk. The absence of LB Von Miller, who led the team in sacks last season, could prove crucial. Raiders quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo, now 41-17 in his career as a starter, completed 88% of his passes when pressured in Week 1.
The Aaron Rodgers-less Packers did a number to the Bears in Week 1, winning 38-20. Green Bay's defense produced four sacks, one interception and a fumble. Backing the Packers this week is dicey due to multiple injuries, including LB Rashan Gary. The Falcons' rushing offense (which clocked 54% rushing play percentage) should have a good run at the Green Bay rushing defense, which was 26th last season against the run.
Week 2 NFL teaser to bet: Bears +8.5 and Titans +8.5
Chicago quarterback Justin Fields had the seventh-best passer rating last season against the blitz. In Week 1 against the Packers, Fields was 9 of 11 with 8.7 yards per pass attempt, plus one touchdown against the blitz. The Bucs defense blitzed at the highest rate in the league in Week 1. Fields could have a field day if the Bucs stick to this defensive scheme. Not to mention, Tampa Bay went 0-6 last season against offenses with a mobile quarterback and/or a run-heavy offense, allowing three quarterbacks 30-plus rushing yards and an average of 194 team rushing yards in those losses.
The Titans have had one of the best six-point teaser records; they were 12-5 last season, 36-14 in the last three years. You back Tennessee because of its defense. The team is 13-23 to the UNDER in the last two years, as the Titans defense has ranked 10th best in back-to-back years for opponent points per play. In Week 1, it produced four sacks and forced one interception. Something similar could be in play this week against the Chargers as their offense could be without RB Austin Ekeler. With him, Herbert’s depth of target was kept to 7.2 yards. If Ekeler does sit, more downfield passes are in play, leaving open the possibility of sacks (holding the ball for too long looking for an open man downfield) or interceptions thrown. Herbert against the Titans last year: zero touchdowns, two interceptions, three sacks. A repeat is possible.