Sunday's NFL slate is dripping with more revenge than a Taylor Swift album, as the Colts take on a Bills team that knocked them out of last year's playoffs, Ron Rivera travels to Carolina to face his former team and quarterback and Ravens QB Lamar Jackson battles his 49th illness of the season. Here are the six player props we'll be playing on BetMGM Sunday (Greg's version):
David Montgomery over 61.5 rushing yards
After missing five weeks with a knee sprain, Montgomery handled 76.5% of the backfield carries against the Steelers in his first game back. If we know anything about Bears coach Matt Nagy, it's that he likes to run the ball. Chicago has at least 26 attempts on the ground in eight of their nine games this season. Four of the last six backfields the Ravens' injury-riddled defense has faced cleared 100 yards rushing. Montgomery is averaging 74.4 rushing yards this season. More than 12% of his carries have gone for 10 or more yards, while the Ravens are allowing the fifth-highest percentage of double-digit gains on carries (14.2%).
Darnell Mooney over 50.5 receiving yards
Betting two Bears player props in the same week is the last thing you do before they fit you for a straight jacket. Chicago's passing offense earlier in the season was about as clear as a Rorschach test, but rookie Justin Fields is settling into his role under center by doing what he did best in college: throwing the deep ball. Fields posted a 68% accuracy on throws of 20-plus yards before entering the NFL. He's leading all starting quarterbacks in aDOT (average depth of target) over the last few weeks and has one of the league's best young vertical threats in Mooney. The former Tulane burner is averaging 6.6 targets per game and has a catch of at least 20 yards in five of nine outings. Chicago will be without receiver Allen Robinson against a Ravens secondary giving up the third-most deep receptions. Baltimore enters Sunday's matchup with three cornerbacks on injured reserve and another three who are listed as questionable to play with injuries.
Joe Mixon over 85.5 rushing and receiving yards
Cincinnati is back to involving Mixon in the passing game, targeting him at least five times in three of their last four games. Las Vegas has been getting absolutely rocked by running backs, surrendering 158.8 yards per game to the position since Week 4. Mixon at -150 to score a touchdown could also be worth a small play, as he's scored in each of his last six contests. He's primed for a big game on Sunday. Not even Carole Baskin could stop this tiger king.
Marcus Johnson over 33.5 receiving yards
If you watched the Titans' 23-21 win over the Saints last week, you probably thought, "Who's this guy?" when Johnson turned a four-yard slant pass into a 50-yard gain. The undrafted free agent runs a 4.39 40 and stepped up in Julio Jones' absence to lead Tennessee in targets, converting five catches into 100 yards. With no Jones and no Derrick Henry, the Titans are sorely in need of playmakers like Johnson, who gets a plus-matchup against the Texans.
Joe Flacco over 0.5 interceptions thrown
Broadway Joe is making his return in what may be the saddest comeback tour since Vanilla Ice. Flacco has thrown a pick in eight of his last 10 starts and will face an improving Dolphins defense that's blitzing at the second-highest rate in the league and has recorded an interception in three of their last four games.
Nico Collins over 27.5 receiving yards
Houston's rookie receiver is averaging 4.5 targets per game over his last four and saw a season-high 70% snap rate against the Dolphins before the Texans went into a bye week. He's exceeded this number in four of six games and will be the recipient of better quarterback play with Tyrod Taylor. Collins' large frame and contested catch ability makes him a threat to hit the over with a single reception.
Stats provided by Pro Football Reference, stathead.com, CBS Sports, and nfl.com.