Nuclear Power Set to Underperform in Most Optimistic UN Scenario
(Bloomberg) -- The ambitious nuclear-energy targets set by world powers last year are unlikely to be achieved, even though nations are on track to dramatically increase atomic-power generation.
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The International Atomic Energy Agency reported Monday that by 2050 installed nuclear power will increase by just 40% under its low-end scenario and 2.5 times in the most-optimistic case. Both fall short of the pledge announced last year to triple generation by mid-century.
“Enabling factors would be necessary to help facilitate reaching — or exceeding — the high case,” according to a report from the Vienna-based IAEA, which added that direct state investment in reactors and power grids would likely be needed to achieve targets.
Even as public support for nuclear power as an emissions-free technology is surging, the IAEA report said that some weak links are preventing quick commercialization of new plants.
China and Russia are the world’s two top builders of nuclear plants. Projects in Western economies have been plagued by construction delays and ballooning costs in recent decades. Nuclear advocates figure about $5 trillion will be needed to hit targets over the next two-and-a-half decades.
The IAEA’s most-optimistic scenario sees installed nuclear capacity increase to 950 gigawatts by 2050 from about 372 gigawatts currently — equivalent to about 578 new reactors, or more than twice the number of operating units in Europe and the US combined. The agency’s low-case scenario envisions an increase of just 40% to 514 gigawatts.
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