Polish Presidential Contest Tightens as Tusk Ally Loses Ground

(Bloomberg) -- Poland’s presidential race tightened five months before voters go to the polls as a liberal candidate poised to help push through Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s agenda lost support against a nationalist historian backed by the opposition.

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Warsaw Mayor Rafal Trzaskowski, considered the frontrunner to become Poland’s next head of state, slipped two points to 36%, according to a United Surveys opinion poll. Karol Nawrocki, an independent who has the support of the opposition Law & Justice party, gained less than a point for 29%, the survey showed.

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The election will determine whether Tusk will have an ally in the presidential palace. His agenda, particularly efforts to restore the independence of the judiciary, has been stymied by President Andrzej Duda, a Law & Justice ally whose term ends in August.

Poland’s head of state can veto legislation, appoint judges and shape foreign policy. Should neither candidate win 50% or more on May 18, the contest will move to a second round two weeks later.

Trzaskowski, a member of Tusk’s Civic Platform who lost a close race to Duda for the top job in 2020, said this week that he’d expected the contest to tighten as Nawrocki becomes more well known.

“I said that this election fight will be fierce and everything will be decided in the second round,” Trzaskowski told reporters on Monday. “I am absolutely convinced that in the second round the results will be very close. This of course is encouraging us to work even harder.”

Tusk’s ruling coalition, which has governed for just over a year after defeating the nationalist Law & Justice government in 2023, aims to secure a win in the presidential ballot to rebuild support. The government’s popularity has slipped over frustration with the high cost of living and the failure to push through judicial reforms and legislation protecting women’s rights.

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A separate survey showed that Trzaskowski’s backing among women in particular had taken a hit, with an Opinia24 poll showing support in that segment down to 32% from 46%.

Nawrocki, who had led Poland’s Institute for National Remembrance, has yet to present a campaign program. But he’s said that he won’t approve legislation liberalizing the country’s restrictive abortion law — and has echoed Law & Justice’s rhetoric blaming Tusk’s government for high food prices.

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