Poll Shows Labour Shedding Nearly 200 Seats as Reform UK Surges
(Bloomberg) -- Britain’s ruling Labour Party would lose nearly 200 seats if elections were held today as the populist Reform UK Party surges, according to a Sunday Times poll.
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Analysis conducted by the More in Common think tank showed Labour would cede the majority it won in July’s elections, when it amassed 411 seats. Labour would lose 87 seats to the Conservative Party and 67 to Nigel Farage’s Reform. The Scottish National Party would pick up 26 seats, the newspaper said on Sunday.
Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s government has struggled since it ended the Conservatives’ 14-year rule following the July 4 ballot. Besieged by allegations of cash-for-access and infighting among top aides, as well as a backlash to its first budget — which included more than £40 billion ($50.3 billion) in tax hikes — the prime minister has seen his poll numbers plummet as the UK economy stalled.
Seven cabinet ministers, including Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner, Home Secretary Yvette Cooper and Health Secretary Wes Streeting, are among those who would lose their seats if elections were held today, according to the Sunday Times poll.
The results suggest an end to the traditional two-party duopoly of British politics, with Reform UK becoming a third major entity. The group said last week that its membership has surpassed that of the Conservatives, and Farage is now the bookmakers’ favorite to succeed Starmer as prime minister.
The poll model was created with survey data of more than 11,000 people and is based on voting intention data collected between Oct. 31 and Dec. 16.
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