The Nigel Farage Reform membership row with Kemi Badenoch, explained
Nigel Farage has claimed Reform UK now has more members than the Conservative Party.
Kemi Badenoch is unlikely to apologise over accusations that Reform UK published a "fake" membership count online, the Conservative shadow home secretary has suggested.
Asked whether the Tory leader will say sorry for the row over Reform membership, Chris Philp told Sunday Morning With Trevor Phillips on Sky News: "I don't think so."
Badenoch alleged on Boxing Day that Reform's online membership counter was "a fake, coded to tick up automatically", sparking a row between her and Farage.
On Friday and Saturday, the Reform UK leader used rallies to declare Badenoch's North West Essex seat a target area for his party at the next election.
Farage told supporters in Leicester on Friday that the "gloves are off", saying: "It's all well and good saying 'sue her', but you have to prove actual harm. She hasn't harmed us. She’s given us tens of thousands more members."
Speaking on Sunday, Philp said it was unlikely that the Conservative leader would apologise. He said: "She obviously had information that she based her comments on."
Reform UK deputy leader Richard Tice told the same programme: "The thing about legal action is you have to prove harm. The truth is that Kemi Badenoch has helped us, so we're sort-of thanking her.
"But what we'd like is an apology. I think Chris Philp has just confirmed we're not going to get an apology, so instead, what Nigel announced yesterday is that we're going to instead make her constituency a key target seat for Reform at the next general election."
What is the row about?
The row was sparked on Boxing Day when a digital counter of membership numbers on the Reform website showed its tally ticking past the 131,680 figure declared by the Conservative Party during its leadership election earlier this year.
Farage branded it a "historic moment".
Badenoch then called the claim "a fake", saying her team had been "watching the back end” of the counter for days and that the numbers had been "coded to tick up automatically". She added: "Farage doesn't understand the digital age. This kind of fakery gets found out pretty quickly, although not before many are fooled."
In response, Reform's X account posted a "screenshot of our internal membership numbers" which showed a figure of 134,832.
Hi Kemi, this is very embarrassing for you. Here is a screenshot of our internal membership numbers.
Whether you like it or not, we have more members. We are the real opposition. https://t.co/mS8VbkAi8N pic.twitter.com/Rb47zrsZ04— Reform UK (@reformparty_uk) December 26, 2024
The party's chairman, Zia Yusuf, insisted the tally was correct and was automatically updated by an API provided by tech software company NationBuilder. He also posted a poll on his X account asking users: "Should Nigel Farage sue Kemi Badenoch for libel?"
Farage later said Reform UK had invited four major news outlets - The Telegraph, Spectator, Sky News & FT - to verify its membership numbers, calling for the Conservatives to do the same.
He also demanded an apology from Badenoch, telling The Telegraph: "Once we"ve fully disproved this, she's going to find life a lot more difficult and bitterly regret putting this out on Boxing Day afternoon."
He went on to accuse the Conservatives of massaging its own figures: "We have also heard from many Tory whistleblowers that will swear under affidavits that ballots were sent out to long expired or resigned ex-members in your leadership election. It's an open secret at CCHQ that your membership numbers are fake."
Yahoo News UK contacted the Conservative Party for a response on the matter.
Reform's "live membership ticker" stood at over 175,000 as of 5.35pm on 5 January. Sky News has reportedly verified the counter's legitimacy.
Who is joining Reform UK?
It's difficult to say. Luke Tryl, director of the More in Common think-tank, told the PA news agency that "parties are notoriously opaque about this sort of thing" and party membership is "very opaque and murky as a metric anyway".
According to 2022 House of Commons Library research, comparing party membership numbers can be "difficult" because there is "no uniformly recognised definition of membership, nor is there an established method or body to monitor it".
On 21 December, Farage said 1,000 "young people" had joined in the previous 48 hours. He didn't define "young people", though his X post included a line saying: "Sign up as a member for just £10 if you are 25 or under." He told GB News on Friday that "many thousands" of the new sign-ups were young people and the average age of membership was "coming down substantially".
Nonetheless, it is clear the party is benefitting from increasing discontent with both Labour and the Tories.
Polling expert Sir John Curtice told the i paper that Labour's post-election support had fallen away more than "any previous newly-elected government".
He added the UK's two-party system now faces "its biggest threat since the foundation of the SDP in 1981", saying "all eyes will be on how Reform fares in 2025".
What does Reform UK actually stand for?
Reform says it is the only party that will "stand up for British culture, identity and values". Among its topline pledges are freezing immigration and cutting taxes "to make work pay".
In this year's election, its number one pledge in its "contract" with voters was: "All non-essential immigration frozen to boost wages, protect public services, end the housing crisis and cut crime." Net migration was 728,000 in the 12 months to June this year.
Number two was: "Illegal migrants who come to the UK will be detained and deported. And if needed, migrants in small boats will be picked up and taken back to France." There was no explanation about how it would persuade France to accept them. Recent administrations have struggled in negotiations with the country.
Reform also proposed £90bn of tax cuts, including lifting the income tax threshold from £12,570 to £20,000. The Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) criticised the party's economic measures, saying "the package as a whole is problematic. Spending reductions would save less than stated, and the tax cuts would cost more than stated, by a margin of tens of billions of pounds per year."
Why did people vote for Reform UK?
In October, YouGov released research asking why Britons voted the way they did in July's election.
Some 882 Reform voters were asked to give their number one reason for voting for the party, and by far the biggest factor - cited by 34% - was immigration. Other factors can be seen in the below chart.
Since the election, when he became an MP at his eighth attempt, Farage's profile has grown. YouGov polling for The Times published late last month suggested 28% of voters have a favourable opinion of him, compared to 25% who approve of Starmer.
Adam McDonnell, research director at YouGov, told the paper: "What is striking is that Reform has not overtaken Labour because Reform and Farage have become more popular - they are largely holding steady - it is Labour that has just got less popular."
But as the row between Badenoch and Farage rumbles on, it's worth pointing out the membership numbers being discussed are relatively small: almost 29 million people voted in July's election and the vast majority weren't members of a party.
Meanwhile, growing membership numbers don't necessarily equate to electoral success. Under Jeremy Corbyn's leadership, Labour's numbers famously surged and were above above 500,000 in December 2018. A year later, the party suffered its worst general election result since 1935. Labour's existing party membership is thought to stand at around 370,000.
