Republicans Close to House Majority and Washington Trifecta

(Bloomberg) -- House Republicans are on the brink of clinching unified GOP control over Washington under President-elect Donald Trump, awaiting wins in just four of the chamber’s 16 remaining uncalled races.

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With 218 seats needed to control the 435-member House, Republicans on Monday were leading in races that have been decided, 214-205, according to the Associated Press.

But other races are on the brink of adding to the GOP numbers. In Colorado, Democratic freshman Representative Yadira Caraveo on Sunday posted a concession statement on X, formerly known as Twitter.

“While this isn’t the outcome we had hoped for, the work is not over,” she posted. “I look forward to returning to Washington to finish out this term and will continue to be an independent voice for the people of this district.”

Republicans are also assured of a 216th seat in an uncalled Washington State race that is an intra-party battle. While not official, incumbent Dan Newhouse released a statement Monday declaring himself the winner there.

Any Republican majority in the new House that opens in January will likely be narrow.

Democrats were leading in many of the 17 uncalled races as of Monday. And New York Republican Representative Elise Stefanik has accepted Trump’s offer to be United Nations ambassador — which, if she’s confirmed, would temporarily shrink the majority.

California Contests

Still, Republicans are leading in four of the five California races that were considered toss-ups by Cook Political Report heading into Election Day. Even so, all of those contests are still too close to call, and there is only one candidate in the five toss-up districts, Representative David Valadao, who is leading by a margin of more than 3 percentage points, according to the Associated Press.

It could still be days before the California races are called. It took 15 days after the 2024 March primaries in California before the results of Proposition 1 were called.

California’s tallying process is slower than most states, partially because it sends mail-in ballots to all registered voters. Following election day, local workers need to open each mail-in ballot and verify signatures, which can be painstaking.

The state also gives voters whose ballots are ruled invalid extra time to prove to local election officials that their votes should be counted.

GOP Rifts

Republicans’ thin majority has been a key factor in intra-party fights and dysfunction, with blocs of Republicans, mostly far-right conservatives, willing to hold out their votes for concessions.

How a Trump presidency — and a Senate-controlled GOP — might alter such battles is uncertain. But Trump has previously succeeded in keeping GOP House members largely in line. And the Republicans who bucked him in his first term are generally no longer in office.

Republicans under Speaker Mike Johnson will meet this week to lay out early plans for a legislative agenda under Trump, which will be dominated by spending priorities and the expiring 2017 tax cuts.

(Updates number of uncalled races, from first paragraph.)

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