Republicans Want to Seize On Wisconsin Voters’ Gloomy Views of Economy
(Bloomberg) -- Wisconsin’s economy is in good shape today. Yet voters there say they are worried about how healthy it will be tomorrow — and Donald Trump hopes he can use that anxiety to defeat President Joe Biden.
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The Republican National Convention, where Trump is expected to formally receive this year’s GOP nomination for president, will kick off on Monday in Milwaukee with a program focused on the economy. Trump traveled to the convention Sunday night after he was injured in a shooting at a rally in Pennsylvania on Saturday.
Wisconsin has often been a state where US elections are won or lost, even if the spotlight right now is on the aftermath of the attempted assassination and questions before the shooting about Biden’s age. A big part of the Republican pitch will be that voters should trust their gut feelings on the economy, instead of the upbeat data, when they head to the polls in November.
By many measures, Wisconsin — one of the swing states that will decide the presidential election — is prospering. Employment hit a record there in May, helping give the Badger State one of the lowest jobless rates in the US. And Wisconsin workers have won bigger pay gains over the past year than the rest of the country, on average.
At the same time, a Bloomberg News/Morning Consult poll this month found 62% of Wisconsin voters think the state’s economy is on the wrong track, and 72% think the US economy is headed in the wrong direction.
There are signs that the gloom is causing people to rein in spending, even for outlays they could afford. Auto repair shop owners like Mike Loos of O’Reilly Motor Cars in Milwaukee say customers are holding off on services they were willing to pay for last year.
“It seems like people are holding on to their money because they’re a little bit nervous about the future,” Loos, 65, said in an interview at the auto repair and tire shop, which specializes in European vehicles, that he’s owned for 27 years.
Some Wisconsin companies are feeling the same squeeze. Nick Pinchuk, chairman and chief executive of Snap-on Inc., a tool maker based in Kenosha, near Milwaukee, said in an interview on Bloomberg Television that garages and technicians are delaying big-ticket purchases because they are “cash rich” but “confidence poor.”
Dennis Girard, 57, owner of Girard’s Service Center in suburban Milwaukee, said his business is down about 13% this year, and he’s waiting to see what happens in the election before making any large purchases for his shop. Girard has been in business for 24 years.
The disconnect between data showing an improving economy and the sense among many voters that it’s going in the wrong direction is likely to be critical to deciding who wins Wisconsin — and the White House — in November.
“Despite legitimate economic improvements in Wisconsin, the cost-of-living issue continues to weigh on voters in the state, just as it does other battleground state voters,” said Eli Yokley, US politics analyst at Morning Consult.
Important Battlegrounds
Wisconsin is one of three swing states, along with Michigan and Pennsylvania, that Biden won in 2020 after Trump carried them four years earlier, and they will be key to determining the winner in 2024.
Among them, Wisconsin had an unemployment rate of 2.9% in May, the most recent month for which data are available, lower than in Michigan and Pennsylvania and better than the 4% US jobless rate. Wisconsin added manufacturing jobs over the preceding 12 months, while Michigan and Pennsylvania shed them.
Wisconsin has a diversified economy and a strong work ethic culture with a severe shortage of workers, said Steven Deller, a professor of agricultural and applied economics at the University of Wisconsin-Madison. Deller said he expects slow and steady economic growth in the state moving forward.
Yet amid Wisconsin’s broadly healthy job market, there have been strains. In Fond du Lac County, northwest of Milwaukee, the economy is both “good and bad,” according to Sadie Howell, the president and chief executive of the economic development organization Envision Greater Fond du Lac.
While the county had a 2.7% unemployment rate in May, two big employers recently announced layoffs: Mercury Marine, a unit of Delaware-based Brunswick Corp. that manufactures outboard motors for recreational boats; and Charter Communications, the cable-television provider that owns the Spectrum brand.
A Charter Communications spokesman said the 122 cuts were the result of a regional support center relocating into national centers. A spokesman for Mercury Marine said its layoffs were attributable to softening consumer demand in some of its markets, amid high interest rates and reductions in boat production.
Howell said the loss of 300 jobs at Mercury’s Fond du Lac headquarters reflects the dilemma many people in the state face.
“It’s the uncertainty,” Howell said in an interview. “It’s the buckling down, it’s the, ‘Well, maybe I’ll just sew a button on the shirt instead of buying a new one.’”
Responding to Inflation
Milwaukee Mayor Cavalier Johnson, a Democrat and Biden supporter, said sentiment on the economy will improve if the annualized US inflation rate, which slowed to 3% in June, continues to decline. He said Biden needs to do more to sell his economic achievements, especially in Milwaukee, where Democrats need a large share of the vote to win statewide.
“They’ve got to do more of that, continue to tell a positive story about what their administration has been delivering for people on the ground here in Milwaukee specifically,” Johnson said.
In Milwaukee’s suburbs, meanwhile, Republicans are looking to make the case that Trump is better-equipped to get a rising cost of living under control.
Higher prices for gasoline and groceries are eroding disposable income, so the perception that the economy is on the wrong track has become the reality in Wisconsin, said Chris Slinker, a realtor and vice chairman of the Republican Party of Waukesha County, the state’s third-most populous county and historically a GOP stronghold.
“It’s definitely going to help Donald Trump and the Republican ticket because I think the Republicans have had a viable response to that issue,” Slinker said. “The Democrats continue to say, ‘Oh, everything’s OK, the statistics say it’s wonderful.’”
Shifting Support
Black voters in Milwaukee were critical to Biden’s victory in the state in 2020 and are expected to again play a decisive role in the 2024 election. Some Democrats are worried there will be a drop in turnout among Black voters and even some support shifting to Trump.
Ruben Hopkins, chief executive of the Wisconsin Black Chamber of Commerce in Milwaukee, estimated that 80% to 90% of his members think the state’s economy is on the right track. Hopkins said Black leaders must do more to educate voters about the investments the Biden administration has made in Milwaukee and Wisconsin.
Chris Sinicki, chairwoman of the Democratic Party of Milwaukee County, said the Wisconsin economy is in good shape, but it’s an issue that could cause some voters to sit out the election because they don’t like either Biden or Trump.
The party plans an aggressive door-knocking campaign after the state’s Aug. 13 primary to inform voters one-on-one about the strength of the economy and make the case that Biden saved it from free-fall during the pandemic, Sinicki said.
For their part, Republicans plan to make the case that Biden’s policies drove up inflation and remind voters that prices were lower under Trump — even if inflation continues to recede, said Scott Walker, the former Wisconsin governor and Milwaukee County executive who had a short-lived campaign in 2015 for the GOP nomination.
“While economic indicators are going in a positive direction, people still don’t feel like their wages, their household income, has caught up with where prices are at,” Walker, who will be a Wisconsin delegate at the convention, said in a telephone interview. “The economy and prices are their top issues, and I think it will be even if there are slight adjustments made between now and November.”
--With assistance from Andrew Harrer.
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