The quarterly results for Philip Morris International Inc. (NYSE:PM) were released last week, making it a good time to revisit its performance. It looks like a credible result overall - although revenues of US$6.7b were in line with what the analysts predicted, Philip Morris International surprised by delivering a statutory profit of US$1.25 per share, a notable 14% above expectations. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Philip Morris International after the latest results.
Taking into account the latest results, Philip Morris International's 15 analysts currently expect revenues in 2020 to be US$28.6b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to accumulate 6.6% to US$4.98. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$28.8b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$4.95 in 2020. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.
The analysts reconfirmed their price target of US$87.31, showing that the business is executing well and in line with expectations. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. There are some variant perceptions on Philip Morris International, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$98.00 and the most bearish at US$70.00 per share. There are definitely some different views on the stock, but the range of estimates is not wide enough as to imply that the situation is unforecastable, in our view.
These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Philip Morris International's past performance and to peers in the same industry. These estimates imply that sales are expected to slow, with a forecast revenue decline of 1.9%, a significant reduction from annual growth of 2.7% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 5.7% next year. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - Philip Morris International is expected to lag the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply revenues will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$87.31, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.
Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Philip Morris International going out to 2024, and you can see them free on our platform here..
It is also worth noting that we have found 2 warning signs for Philip Morris International that you need to take into consideration.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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