Scholz Vows to Avoid Russia Escalation After Sealing Candidacy
(Bloomberg) -- Chancellor Olaf Scholz said voters should trust him to keep Germany out of a direct conflict with Russia, doubling down on a key campaign message after he was confirmed as the Social Democrats’ lead candidate for February’s snap election.
Most Read from Bloomberg
NYC's Underground Steam System May Be Key to a Greener Future
NYC Gets Historic Push for 80,000 Homes With $5 Billion Pledge
In Kansas City, a First-Ever Stadium Designed for Women’s Sports Takes the Field
Trump Promises Could Have Seismic Impact on Washington Economy
NYC Mayor Adams Names Jessica Tisch to Lead Police Head Amid Probes
Scholz sought to distinguish himself and his party from the poll-leading opposition conservatives, saying that while Germany stands firmly by its pledge to support Ukraine, it’s also imperative to prevent the conflict escalating into a war between Russia and NATO. His nomination is set to be rubber stamped at an SPD leadership meeting on Monday, despite his woeful personal approval ratings.
“There are many people who are worried, who are scared about security and peace in Europe,” Scholz said Friday at an SPD event in Berlin, portraying himself as a shrewd, cautious guardian of the nation.
“It’s important that we set a clear course that everyone can depend on,” he added. “So I am very sure that citizens who like to vote for democratic parties know full well which of these parties has committed to prudence.”
Scholz had faced mounting pressure to stand aside for Boris Pistorius before the popular defense minister took himself out of the running on Thursday.
Pistorius, 64, has consistently ranked as Germany’s most popular politician and was widely seen as more likely to mount a successful campaign against the conservatives under Friedrich Merz.
Merz’s CDU/CSU alliance is generally more hawkish on backing Ukraine and its lawmakers have lambasted Scholz for his refusal to supply the government in Kyiv with long-range Taurus cruise missiles. Scholz justifies his stance by saying that doing so risks drawing Germany directly into the war.
In a survey for public broadcaster ARD published Thursday, Pistorius scored an approval rating of 61%, almost twice as high as Merz in second place on 34%. Robert Habeck, the Greens chancellor candidate and current vice chancellor, was third on 29% and Scholz a distant sixth on 20%.
Germany is holding a national election on Feb. 23, seven months before the scheduled vote, after Scholz dismantled his ruling coalition with the Greens and the Free Democrats on Nov. 6 following a prolonged dispute over budget policy.
His surprise sacking of FDP Finance Minister Christian Lindner, which left his government without a parliamentary majority, tipped Europe’s biggest economy into political turmoil at a time when it’s struggling to emerge from a prolonged period of stagnation.
As well as his message to voters worried about conflict with Russia, Scholz also promised that Germany will continue to maintain defense spending at 2% of gross domestic — the target for NATO members — without compromising social welfare spending.
To achieve that, a loosening of Germany’s stringent borrowing rules, known as the debt brake, will be required, he added.
He attacked Lindner over the Free Democrat leader’s insistence on sticking to the borrowing limit, which ultimately led to the breakup of the ruling alliance — another sign that the topic is set to be one of the most hotly debated in the weeks leading up to the election.
In order to bring the vote forward from September, Scholz will submit to a confidence vote next month in the lower house of parliament. Once he loses that, he can ask the president to dissolve the Bundestag and confirm the date of the ballot.
Recent opinion polls look bleak for the Social Democrat incumbent, who succeeded Christian Democrat Angela Merkel in late 2021.
As things stand, Merz’s CDU/CSU alliance would win with more than 32% of the vote, according to a polling average calculated by Bloomberg.
The AfD would come second with roughly 18%, with the SPD third at about 15% and the Greens fourth at around 12%.
If Merz’s bloc wins the election, he will almost certainly need to form a coalition with at least one other party to secure a Bundestag majority.
With the FDP in danger of missing the 5% threshold for getting seats in parliament, his most likely partners are the SPD and the Greens.
That raises the prospect of another government formed of parties with conflicting policies on how Germany should address challenges like technological transformation and climate change, as well as geopolitical threats like Russia’s war on Ukraine.
In his speech Friday, Scholz joked that the election is bound to turn out well for the SPD. The reason? It falls on the birthdays of both Lars Klingbeil, a party co-leader, and Scholz’s wife, Britta Ernst.
This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
Most Read from Bloomberg Businessweek
What Happens When US Hospitals Go Big on Nurse Practitioners
An Airline’s Florida Resort Dreams Look More Like a Nightmare
©2024 Bloomberg L.P.
