A year ago today, the Kansas City Chiefs blasted the New York Jets, 35-9, covering as a huge 19.5-point favorite.
That was the last time the Chiefs were a dominant against-the-spread team. Since then they're 3-14-1 against the spread counting playoffs. Week after week, bettors line up to take a Chiefs team that still has some big-time stars, and almost every time they've been disappointed.
The reason the Chiefs are a big favorite on Monday night is our idea of what the Chiefs should be, not necessarily what they've been for a long time. Kansas City is -10.5 against the New York Giants at BetMGM.
Nobody would ever rule out the Chiefs coming alive. You can see it in your head: Patrick Mahomes throws for five touchdowns, Kansas City puts up 50 and every sports show gets to proclaim for a week that the Chiefs are back. But that's betting on something that we haven't seen in reality for a while.
The Chiefs are a deeply flawed team, with a bottom-three NFL defense and an offense that is still very good but also too reliant on Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce and turns it over too often.
The Giants are not a great team by any means and backing them against the Chiefs is not easy. But they're still a respectable 3-4 against the spread. Daniel Jones hasn't mastered consistency but he has had some good games. He'll find opportunities against the Chiefs defense. Even if the Chiefs play very well, a backdoor cover should be in play against that Kansas City defense.
It might not be a comfortable pick, but Giants +10.5 seems like the right side. Kansas City isn't the juggernaut we're used to, and they've been bad for bettors. There's still time to follow that trend.
Here's the first look at the sports betting slate for Monday:
How about some Chiefs-Giants props?
I think Daniel Jones' passing yards at 242.5 is way too low. The Giants should be healthier at receiver with possibly Kadarius Toney, Sterling Shepard or maybe both available. No matter the game script, the Giants will be passing. Unless somehow they're up big and running it late, which isn't going to happen, Jones will be passing when it's close (what are they going to do, try to win by establishing Devontae Booker?) or they'll be passing every down to catch up. And doing so against a Chiefs defense allowing 8.6 yards per attempt, tied for the third-worst in the NFL. Let's go all-in on Jones and also grab over 21.5 rushing yards. It's a figure he has hit in five of seven games this season.
For those who enjoy the first touchdown bet at BetMGM, give Darius Slayton a look. He's the one healthy, strong option in the receiving corps and he's +2800 to score the first TD of the game.
What's the highlight game in the NBA?
There are nine games on the schedule, and the one that stands out is the breakout 5-1 Chicago Bulls against the 2-4 Boston Celtics. The Celtics still get a lot of respect from oddsmakers, and they're 2.5-point favorites. It's worth a play on the Bulls.
Another line that stands out is the Charlotte Hornets -4 against the Cleveland Cavaliers. The Hornets are off to a 4-2 start and while there should be some concern about them playing the second game of a back-to-back, they're still a good play.
What else is there to bet on?
There's an English Premier League match on at 4 p.m. Eastern for those looking to pass the time before "Monday Night Football." Everton plays Wolverhampton. The Wolves have won three of four and are a decent +125 favorite on the three-way line. There are also three NHL games highlighted by Washington at Tampa Bay. The Lightning are -145 favorites.
What's the best bet?
I'll go with Daniel Jones over passing yards, with a co-best bet on the Bulls.